Turkey will hold presidential elections on May 14. Interestingly, this is now considered a given, but just a few months ago it was uncertain. The country had suffered a devastating earthquake, and many speculated that the ruling party would use it as an excuse to postpone the elections. However, President Erdogan decided to show political courage and hold them on time. We hope that he will have the courage to conduct them fairly and recognize the results of these fair elections. This also applies to the opposition, which we will discuss later.
The main candidates are known: the incumbent president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), its main ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), and several other nationalist-Islamic parties (including the Kurdish-Muslim Huda Par), as well as Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and a diverse opposition coalition of seven parties, ranging from secular nationalist to national-conservative and pro-Islamic parties.
In general, we have already expressed our opinion on these elections, but we would like to reiterate some important points.
1. These are the presidential elections of Turkey, one of the most important countries in the Islamic world. This duality must be understood because, on the one hand, these are not the elections for a Caliph or «the leader of the Islamic Ummah» as some try to portray it, but rather the elections for the head of one of the nation-states that have emerged in place of the former Ottoman Caliphate. However, Turkey is one of the most influential states in the Islamic world, so it is important for Muslims worldwide, especially in our region where there are many ties with Turkey, to be aware of what is happening in that country. Not to mention the many brothers and sisters who have found a new home or refuge in Turkey and whose interests are directly affected by these elections.
Therefore, yes, these elections are primarily for the Turkish people (i.e. Turkish citizens) and we urge everyone to remember this and understand that we cannot impose on them what they will reject. They have to make this choice themselves and we should accept their decision. However, we are not indifferent to the fate of this nation or the fate of the Muslim peoples and communities associated with it. Therefore, we ask Allah to bless them with the results of these elections and to protect them from any harm that may befall them.
2. The main focus of these elections is to preserve the existing Turkish state, its stability and unity. Yes, we say this even though during the era of neo-Ottoman aspirations we criticized the limitations of this state and hoped for something bigger, a supranational Islamic project. And no, it is not that we have abandoned our ideas, but rather that we, along with many others, have realized and recognized that Turkish society and the Turkish nation do not want to give up the nation-state created by Mustafa Kemal with its laws and constitution.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has become the voice of the aspirations of many generations of Muslim intellectuals and activists, from Adnan Menderes to Turgut Ozal and Necmettin Erbakan at the beginning of the 21st century.
He has put an end to the systemic Islamophobia of the state.
This is his great victory, and he will go down in history as the reformer of the Turkish Republic, or even as the creator of the second Turkish Republic, if we draw parallels with France and its numerous republics. Moreover, no serious political force in Turkey today denies this success, including those that opposed it, such as the CHP, because today they all agree (at least in words) that the defeat of the rights of believing Muslims and their exclusion from the mainstream of the state and society must not be repeated. Again, this is a success for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has achieved what Erbakan, Ozal or Menderes could not, and he has a chance to go down in history with this positive legacy.
At the same time, it must be understood that after achieving these achievements, Recep Tayyip Erdogan at some point began to pursue a policy that was not only opposed by his long-time opponents, but also rejected by his newer colleagues and allies. As a result, some of the people with whom he achieved these successes have gone into opposition, such as former President Abdullah Gül, former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, former Foreign Minister Ali Babacan, and also the party of Necmettin Erbakan, Erdogan’s former associate and mentor, Saadet (although Erbakan’s son Fatih, who heads another party, Yeniden Refah, supports Erdogan).
This indicates a significant political split in Turkish society, not necessarily along the lines of «Islamists versus anti-Islamists,» to which we will return. It should be noted that none of the opposing sides aims to destroy the existing Turkish state in order to create a caliphate or something else in its place. For all of them, the Turkish Republic is an irreplaceable value, which means that whoever wins these elections, it must be preserved from civil war, division and dictatorship. And it must be preserved not only as a nation-state, but also as part of the international community, thanks to which it achieves many of its successes. This means not only avoiding civil wars, but also avoiding «Lukashenkoization» or «Chavization» as a result of neglecting the rules according to which the Turkish electoral system works.
3. Voting is both simple and complicated
For the Islamic-oriented voter in these elections, everything seems simple at first glance. President Erdogan is extremely lucky with his main opponent, who repels the Islamic-oriented voter to the maximum. Kemalş Kılıçdaroğlu:
- Away from Islam
- Openly calls himself an Alevi
- Supported by many Islamophobes, atheists, militant secularists, feminists, LGBTQ+ activists
- Supported by pseudo-Kurdish leftists from the political wing of the terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) — Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP).
In such a situation, it may seem that the Islamic-oriented voter cannot possibly support him in the fight against a man who is known as a devout Muslim and a veteran of the Islamic movement, who achieved rights for Muslims, returned Hagia Sophia to Muslims, and so on.
And yet, this is what is happening — Kılıçdaroğlu against Erdogan is ready to be supported not only by his former associates mentioned above, but also by representatives of several Islamic Jamaats and other practicing Muslims who previously supported or sympathized with Erdogan.
So why is this happening? The simplest explanation offered by party fanatics and sectarians is that all these people are hypocrites, agents and almost apostates. But there is a more complicated issue, which they themselves express — they support Kylychdaroglu not because of the above, but in spite of it, and only as the leader of a broad, diverse coalition that promises to restore the parliamentary republic that Erdogan abolished in 2016 if he wins the presidential elections. Thus, if for the majority of Erdogan’s supporters the key issue is the personality and ideology of him and his opponent, for many of his opponents the key issue is the political system in the country — the one in which maximum powers are concentrated in the hands of the president, which sidelines the opposition from decision-making, or the one in which the key body is the parliament, which forces different political forces to form coalitions with each other and take into account the positions and interests of different parties and their voters.
4. Erdogan’s last election
This election will most likely be the last election for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as he himself has stated. This means that not only if he loses, but also if he wins, this will be his last presidential term, so he will have to find his successor and bring him to the political stage. By the way, this question is closely related to the previous one. For example, Satan Netanyahu returned to power after several defeats and transitions to the opposition. But he succeeded precisely because Israel is a parliamentary republic, which allowed Netanyahu to break up various coalitions of right-wing and religious parties. If Turkey were to become a parliamentary republic, there is no doubt that the current seven-party opposition coalition would not last long because its secular and leftist, conservative and right-wing participants would quickly split on many issues. Under such conditions, the AKP, like the Likud in Israel, would most likely become the inevitable center of any new conservative coalition. President Erdogan, however, is betting on a different model — an electoral sultanate. In this model, the winner takes everything and the loser loses everything. But the winner bears the burden of power and enormous responsibility, which is clearly evident in Erdogan, who no longer appears as a person with the energy for an «endless» struggle for power, like Netanyahu. Therefore, in case of Erdogan’s victory, he will have to find an equally strong successor who will be able to consolidate the nation around him and take full responsibility for continuing his work. And in the event of his defeat, Turkey is likely to face a difficult transition to a parliamentary system, most likely with a regrouping of the current ruling and opposition parties. But this is not certain — although Kemal Kylychdaroglu has promised to do so, he will formally receive broad presidential powers from President Erdogan, which will allow him to sideline his allies and try to rule alone, with his own party. And this is one of the worst scenarios, even if unlikely.
5. Two rounds or one? There is no point in speculating about the ratings of the candidates.
Different polls give different results, but the key question is not even who will get more, but who will get less, and whether the elections will be held in one round if the winner gets 50+%, or in two rounds if not. This will soon be known when the Turkish voters, including our readers, make their choice.
We reiterate that no matter who it is, it is important that the winner of these elections wins fairly, and that those who lose fairly accept their defeat and strive to seek a rematch not through violence in the streets and squares, but in the next elections, which must also be held fairly.
This is what we wish for the Turkish people and for all Muslims. Or, as the Turks say, «hayırlı olsun» — may it be for the best.