Despite the fact that the existing government in Russia is desperately trying to prevent the political situation from getting out of control, its ability to control the post-Soviet space is diminishing. In theory, it should no longer control it, since these are already independent states that have the right to conduct their own internal and external policies. However, the Russian government, which has repeatedly declared them to be its exclusive sphere of influence, has made itself hostage to what happens in these countries, since their inevitable detachment from its control will be perceived as a geopolitical defeat for the Kremlin.
The geopolitical transformation of the post-Soviet space affects Muslim Central Eurasia as a whole and Northern Eurasia in particular, both when it directly involves Muslim countries and peoples and in a broader context. Any strengthening of Russian neo-imperial influence, which carries with it the ideas of the «Orthodox Russian world,» poses a threat to Muslims trying to defend themselves against it. Conversely, any weakening of this influence in the short term creates alternative possibilities for existing Muslim states and in the long term increases the weight and significance of the Muslim factor in Russia itself (today this name can only be used in quotes). Therefore, let us consider the most important news on this subject that directly affects Muslims, as well as those that are not directly related to them, but are crucial for the fate of the post-Soviet space.
1. Azerbaijan — Armenia
After yesterday’s coup attempt by militant revanchist circles in Armenia, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan made a number of important statements in his speech today. It all started yesterday when 40 high-ranking Armenian officers, led by the Chief of the General Staff of Armenia, Onik Gasparyan, issued a statement calling on the country’s Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, to resign. Such statements from the military command, which should be subordinate to the political leadership of the country and detached from internal political struggles, are nothing but a military mutiny, or at least a declaration of one. This is how it was perceived by the revanchist circles in Armenia, which were inspired by the statement and accused Pashinyan of «betraying Artsakh», by the Turkish Foreign Ministry, which condemned the coup attempt in the neighboring country, and by Pashinyan himself, who decided to dismiss Gasparyan and called on the army not to interfere in politics during a rally of his supporters. Obviously, such statements by Armenian generals could not have been made without coordination with potential allies in Moscow, although publicly the Kremlin and Smolenskaya Square called on the opposing sides to calm down and declared that all this was Armenia’s internal affair. Armenian President Armen Sarkisian allegedly adopted the same position, publicly not supporting the coup plotters, but also not approving Pashinyan’s decision to dismiss the Chief of General Staff, thus preserving the potential coup.
Yesterday and today, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan also made statements on this matter. Referring to the acute crisis in Armenia and stating that what is happening is its internal affair, he nevertheless warned against any revanchist plans and expressed surprise that Russia intends to help Armenia create a new army. «I would like to take this opportunity to ask: why should Russia help Armenia to create a new army? The war is over. And now I have a question: what is the need for Russia to strengthen the Armenian army? Is it for peace?» Aliyev asked.
On the whole, Aliyev’s speech, although cautious, repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with Moscow’s actions regarding Armenia and the Armenian enclave of Karabakh. He mentioned the entry of foreign persons into Karabakh without Azerbaijan’s consent, the introduction of the Russian language as an official language by the separatists of the so-called Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, and finally he stated that after the 5-year mandate of the Russian «peacekeepers» expires, Azerbaijan may demand their termination. All this essentially confirms our forecast from last year that the November 2020 agreements at the end of the Second Karabakh War are not a final solution to this problem, but rather carry the risks of a Third Karabakh War (and possibly not only) in the future.
2. The Ukraine
Against the backdrop of the Kremlin’s policy in Donbass, it is once again clear why Ukraine is trying to free itself from its influence. Surprisingly, this course has recently accelerated even under the current president, Volodymyr Zelensky, whom many considered a more convenient president for the Kremlin, offering a non-militant, peaceful policy. Nevertheless, the «dove» Zelensky has dared to do what the «hawk» Petro Poroshenko never dared to do — clean up the extensive and powerful economic, media, and political infrastructure of pro-Russian forces in Ukraine, led by Ukrainian oligarch and Putin friend Viktor Medvedchuk.
TV channels 112 Ukraine, ZIK, and NewsOne have been closed, assets of Viktor Medvedchuk and his wife Oksana Marchenko have been arrested, a number of popular Russian online resources have been blocked, and cases have been opened regarding the financing of pro-Russian terrorists in Donbass. A prominent propagandist associated with pro-Russian separatists, Anatoly Shariy, is on the wanted list. Many analysts predict that all this makes a new military escalation in Donbass almost inevitable, possibly as early as spring. Especially since almost simultaneously a landing of Kremlin propagandists such as Margarita Simonyan, Tigran Keosayan and Roman Babayan took place at the «Russian Donbass» forum, where they declared Donbass to be Russian (this is not a joke) and promised to come to Kyiv soon.
The main concern in such a situation is not even the degree of Ukraine’s military readiness or unpreparedness in a new war, because with national consolidation in the fight against the enemy, even the loss of some territories will not be critical. The main risk for Ukraine could be a split between conditionally pro-Ukrainian and unconditionally pro-Ukrainian forces, which could happen now due to the inconsistency of Volodymyr Zelensky’s actions. Recently, Ukrainian patriot Serhiy Sternenko was sentenced to seven years in prison for actions he took in 2014 to neutralize pro-Russian separatists, which sparked outrage and mass protests by pro-Ukrainian forces.
If this conflict between President Zelensky and the patriotic part of Ukrainian society is not resolved, potential failures on the front lines in the event of a new military escalation could lead Ukraine to dire consequences. As for the Kremlin, even new military successes in Donbass will strategically lead to significant losses due to new, more extensive sanctions that will be imposed on it.
3. Belarus
Last week in Sochi a meeting took place between Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, the footage of which symbolically transformed the Belarusian leader from an equal, and in some cases superior, player to his Moscow counterpart into his pitiful puppet.
Scenes of the once self-confident Belarusian charismatic taking flattering notes from his colleague, or rather, patron, have spread around the world. And this is happening because instead of relying on his people and engaging in dialogue with them, Lukashenko has decided to oppose them and cling to power at all costs. But when you cannot rely on internal support and your actions are against a significant part of the outside world, represented by your neighbors in the EU, then you are left to become a hostage of other external forces, in this case Putin’s Russia and Communist China. As a result, Belarus itself, where Lukashenko relies solely on obedient officials and security forces, is increasingly reminiscent of either North Korea or modern-day Turkmenistan in terms of the comical nature of official propaganda.
Nevertheless, serious experts note that the transformation into a comical Moscow-Beijing puppet will not allow Lukashenko to stay in power for long. Available information suggests that the Kremlin, having cornered Lukashenko, will insist on his departure and the replacement of a more convenient and predictable puppet. This could happen either through a hard scenario, in which someone from the loyal security forces comes to power, or through an outwardly liberal scenario, in which Lukashenko releases from prison some of the opposition leaders whom the Kremlin regards as its people, namely Viktor Babariko and Maria Kolesnikova. The Kremlin may try to use the latter option as part of a bargain for a new deal with the European Union, in which the issues of Ukraine and Belarus may be intertwined.
Thus, only the Kremlin currently faces problems and challenges in the post-Soviet space regarding Karabakh, Ukraine, and Belarus. In addition, a possible escalation over Transnistria and the rise to power of Mikheil Saakashvili’s opposition forces in Georgia could also pose challenges for the Kremlin. Considering all this, it becomes clear why internal destabilization in Russia itself is a nightmare for the Kremlin and why it will try to prevent it at all costs. But we know that there is no power or might except with Allah.