Therefore, «Voice of Islam» congratulates first of all all our Azerbaijani readers and secondly all other Muslims on the decisive, historic, though incomplete victory of Azerbaijan in the war for liberation of the Armenian-occupied lands. Today, God willing, we will shed light on the details of the capitulation agreements reached with Armenia, the general provisions of which are generally known, and other news related to their signing. In the meantime, let’s talk about why this is indeed a victory, and why it is still incomplete, and therefore what we need to prepare for now.
The fact that this is a victory for Azerbaijan is obvious to the majority of reasonable people, but first of all it is obvious to its opponents, who are now experiencing shock and catastrophe due to the collapse of their illusions and delusions. However, there are those who believe that Ilham Aliyev has stopped the army at the moment when it had the opportunity to complete 100% of the tasks before Azerbaijan, left a significant part of Nagorno-Karabakh under occupation, allowed Russia to enter there and planted a new time bomb, thinking that Armenia will get a respite and an opportunity to prepare for revenge and a new war.
We’ll discuss the plans and risks of a possible Armenian revenge a little later, but for now let’s focus on the rest. Yes, it is obvious that the Azerbaijani army would have faced the so-called Artsakh Defense Army alone, and its complete defeat would have been a matter of the next few months. But the point is that from the very beginning it was clear that both Azerbaijan and Armenia were not the only players in this war, but allies of major regional and even global powers whose interests converged in this war, as we initially wrote (https://golosislama.com/news.php?id=39200).
And here it is necessary to understand that until yesterday Azerbaijan was dealing only with its direct military opponent, precisely because the Azerbaijani leadership politically prepared and conducted this war wisely, not giving its opponents any trump cards for direct interference in it. However, the existence of such reasons was demonstrated yesterday by the destruction of a Russian helicopter in the Armenian airspace by the Azerbaijani air defense, which in other circumstances could easily have led to a war. It should also be understood that in the preceding days Iran had gathered a strike group near its border with Azerbaijan, obviously not with the aim of helping it to liberate its territories. And if Azerbaijan had crossed the red lines of Armenia’s patrons, it could have suddenly obtained weapons that would have allowed it to attack oil fields, oil and gas pipelines, large reservoirs, etc., which would have led to a major war involving countries that were not interested in it.
Therefore, militarily, Baku took what it could without taking unwarranted risks and crowned its victory with the symbolic capture of Karabakh’s historic capital, Shusha, which apparently was also part of the agreements of the regional actors. Politically, Baku did not take the risks of being accused of a humanitarian catastrophe, «genocide of the ancient Christian people by pan-Turkist and Syrian jihadists,» etc., which would have been high in case of continued fighting for Nagorno-Karabakh and the remaining Armenian-populated enclaves. Moreover, these risks would have affected both Azerbaijan itself and Turkey, which is facing an increasing burden, especially in light of the almost inevitable arrival of Joe Biden in the White House, who has called for the overthrow of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and promised support for the Armenians. Therefore, the victorious conclusion of the war with the capture of Shusha, forcing the enemy to surrender militarily and accept the most favorable conditions possible at the moment, without excessive risks of regional confrontation and global opposition, is an unconditional victory for Azerbaijan and personally for Ilham Aliyev, who has proven himself to be a brilliant strategist and tactician throughout this entire history.
As for Russia, its intervention in the conflict zone is a painful price for Azerbaijan, but a price without which, of course, such agreements could not have been reached. And again, they should be seen in a broader regional and global context — they were clearly reached by Moscow and Ankara, and apparently in view of the risks that both of them face after Joe Biden comes to power, who is inclined to fight both Putin’s Russia and Erdogan’s Turkey.
But considering all that has been said, it is also obvious that the agreements reached are of a temporary nature. Any change in the balance of power between its guarantors or in the nature of relations between them can automatically lead to the resumption of the war with the aim of revising the reached agreements in favor of those who have the military forces and political capabilities for it.
In this situation, the main strategic risks and goals for Azerbaijan are not only and not so much related to the possibility of preparing Armenia for military revenge. Armenian politics has now suffered a real catastrophe, which is a humiliation not only for the nationalists in Armenia and Artsakh, but also for the Armenian lobby in those countries where it has strong positions, including Russia.
Unfortunately, it is unlikely that Armenian society will realize the damage it has done to itself by its confrontational anti-Muslim and anti-Turkish historical and political beliefs. Such enlightenment, of course, must be promoted by supporting the rare sane voices among the Armenians, but in general it must be understood that under similar conditions the Germans listened to their sane voices only after a complete military defeat and taking them under external control for their re-education (denazification). Therefore, political Armenia will most likely try to respond to the humiliating defeat not only by preparing for military revenge, but also by becoming more active in the anti-Islamic and anti-Turkish campaign worldwide, starting with Russia.
This time, due to its tactical considerations — the desire to punish the pro-Western authorities in Armenia and the interest in cooperation with Turkey in the face of common risks — Russia has essentially taken the side of Turkic-Muslim Azerbaijan, preferring its own interests to talk about the «mission to protect the Byzantine heritage», «ancient Christian nation», etc. In the long run, this opens up the possibility of revising its foreign and domestic policies based on the strengthening potential of the Turkic and Muslim factors, including within Russia, where they are indigenous. The Armenian lobby, like all other lobbies and groups for whom such tectonic changes are equivalent to death, will do everything to prevent them and to bring Russia back to the track of the «shield of Christian civilization against the Islamic threat» and, as a result of their confrontation, to «recover» not only «Artsakh» but also other «lands of Greater Armenia» (https://golosislama.com/news.php?id=39128).
So, this war is just beginning and will be fought on many fronts, starting with intellectual, informational and political. Therefore, from today, after celebrating the victory in its first stage, we must roll up our sleeves and start preparing for it, both Azerbaijan and the Muslims of Northern Eurasia, who will find themselves in its epicenter and will be either its victors or its victims.