Despite the fact that the major players have generally divided their spheres of influence in northeastern Syria, the contradictions between their local proxies remain due to the lack of proper detailing of these agreements and their dissatisfaction. This has already become apparent, as we have previously written, and it is necessary to take into account one important detail.
Turkey’s and the Syrian National Army’s control over the territories they have gained, although limited in space, is absolute, which means that they fully occupy the inhabited areas with armed forces and establish complete control over them. However, the regime’s control over most of the acquired territories, such as Manbij, is rather conditional and consists mainly of the presence of a few military vehicles driving through the populated areas with flags and then posting photos and videos online. The objective reasons for this are clear from the maps: if the Turkish and Syrian National Army forces advance in a concentrated manner from their bridgeheads into the adjacent areas, the Assadists will be separated from many of the areas they claim to control by significant distances, and occupying these areas would require equally significant forces.
Therefore, when the pro-Turkish Syrian National Army (SNA) forces launched an offensive in the disputed part of the agreed safe zone yesterday, the brave Assadist soldiers and their no less brave Kurdish communist comrades fled as fast as they could. The destroyed and captured equipment, along with the regime soldiers caught on camera, are the cost of the fake Assadist occupation of territories deep in the «Kurdish» lands when they faced the advance of the real SNA forces without the support of Russia and Iran. All this took place in the area of the protrusion that the SNA believes should be included in the safe zone according to the Turkish-Russian agreements in Sochi. According to available information, the SNA forces have captured 16 populated areas in the east of Ras al-Ain.
The retreat of the Assad supporters was accompanied by another disappointment for the «Kurds» and their media fan club, who now accuse the Assad supporters of relying on them, fleeing at the first sign of danger, etc. But let’s be fair — the problem here is not so much the cowardice of the Assadists, but the fact that the alleged occupation of these territories by them, unsupported by real army forces, which could not be introduced without occupying the «Kurdish» lands that separate them from the territories actually controlled by the Assadist regime, was doomed to collapse at the first serious pressure. This happened as a result of the SNA taking the initiative where they were allowed to by their Turkish patrons as well as by Russia, the patron of the Assadists, who believed that this area could be easily occupied by the Turks and their proxies.
At the same time, in another direction — near Tell Abyad and Ain Issa, where the SNA forces had previously advanced further than the agreed 32 km safe zone, they quietly handed over control of 11 populated areas to the Russian military police yesterday. However, despite the fact that all this is happening within the framework of the fundamentally agreed upon agreements, it is worth noting that for the first time in a long time, the pro-Assad forces have experienced humiliation at the hands of the Turks and their Syrian subordinates. This can be seen as a kind of revenge for the humiliation of the Turks by the Assadists in the Khan Shaykhun area.