The simultaneous announcement of the imminent departure of Angela Merkel, who has held the position of Chancellor of Germany for the past 18 years, and the victory of Jair Bolsonaro in the Brazilian presidential elections are a clear illustration of the radical changes taking place in global politics.
Let’s start with Germany. Merkel has announced that she will step down as leader of the ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and thus as chancellor, by 2021 at the latest (and possibly much earlier) after another unsuccessful election for her party. Specifically, the traditional alliance between the CDU and the Christian Social Union (CSU), which mainly represents the state of Bavaria, performed poorly in the recent Bavarian elections, with the worst results in the last 30 years.
The CDU also had bad results yesterday in another large state, Hesse. The party lost 7 seats in the state parliament (Landtag) compared to the previous elections, a decrease of 11.3% compared to the previous campaign. Paradoxically, equally bad news for Merkel comes from her main traditional rival on the left, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD). They lost 8 seats, a drop of 19.8% from the previous election.
Against this backdrop, the Greens are celebrating a real triumph. In Hesse, the party led by the German-Yemeni politician Tarek Al-Wazir is in the lead. It is worth noting that at the federal level, this party is led by the German-Turkish politician Cem Özdemir. However, Muslim communities are unlikely to be enthusiastic about it. While this party promotes tolerance for outward manifestations of Islam, such as the hijab, it is staunchly pro-sexual minorities and harshly criticizes (for human rights violations) countries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other Muslim states.
However, this discussion is not about analyzing the platforms of the German Green Party. The fact is that this party is considered much more radical on the left than the traditional SPD. In addition, the radical right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is trying to control the right-wing coalition of CDU-CSU, has also been successful. It won 9% more votes in the Hesse state elections, making it a party represented not only in the Bundestag but also in all state parliaments.
Merkel’s decision to retire from politics (and her statement that she will no longer participate in it after leaving leadership positions) is quite indicative and symbolic in this context. For all these years, Merkel has been the prominent face of «Christian conservatism» in Germany, while the SPD has represented respected social democracy, playing a game of give and take with each other. Now we see that supporters of both the left and the right are increasingly dissatisfied with moderate and compromising politics and are voting for uncompromising figures. This is vaguely reminiscent of the situation in the 1930s, when Communists and Nazis were engaged in a relentless struggle.
While these analogies are still remotely visible in Germany, they were fully manifested yesterday in Brazil. In the presidential elections, the candidate of the radical left, Fernando Haddad, clashed with a man dubbed the «Brazilian Hitler» — Jair Bolsonaro (pictured on his campaign poster). «Hitler» triumphed in the second round with a margin of more than 10% of the vote (55.1% versus 44.9%).
Bolsonaro’s supporters prefer to call him the «Brazilian Trump,» as he positions himself as an admirer and ally of the American politician. Trump, of course, became and to a large extent remains the enfant terrible («unruly child») of Western political elites, as the French say. His victory paved the way for such controversial figures as Matteo Salvini in Italy and almost brought Marine Le Pen to power in France. The Swedish Democrats, Alternative for Germany — all these parties are of the same ilk, growing beyond the norms of political decency («political correctness») that have been established in post-war Europe.
But even in this context, Bolsonaro stands out. He recently promised to eradicate the left-wing movement in Latin America, given his public support for the torture methods of the military dictatorship that once ruled Brazil. It is easy to guess how he intends to achieve this…
However, to be fair, Bolsonaro’s victory and the rise of anti-communist and anti-leftist sentiment in neighboring Venezuela was secured by the leftists themselves. They drove the country not just into crisis, but into collapse, with money virtually worthless, basic goods disappearing from store shelves, and the population at risk of starvation. This has caused millions of Venezuelans to flee to neighboring countries, leaving a truly alarming impression.
In such a situation, it is not surprising that the winner was the person who promised to prevent a repetition of the Venezuelan tragedy in Brazil, to stop the communists and to impose order with an iron fist. But once in power, will he be able to leave behind his extravagant statements? If not, what will be the result of such order?
Regardless, the simultaneity of these events suggests that the era of respectable and prudent politicians like Merkel is over, and more and more countries are entering the Bolsonaro era.