The possibility of starting several new wars in the near future — two limited military operations and one major war — is being seriously discussed by military experts. And in all these cases Russia and Turkey are involved. The Turkish leadership has been talking about a new military operation in northern Syria for a long time. However, it should be noted that after the operations «Euphrates Shield» and «Olive Branch» the Turkish leadership has long been promising to take Manbij and create a safe zone along the entire Turkish-Syrian border. But nothing has been achieved so far, which has led to some skepticism about Ankara’s new bellicose statements. On the other hand, these bellicose statements have twice led to successful military operations, and it is not excluded that the same will happen now.
The fact that the Turkish parliament has given permission for the further deployment of the Turkish armed forces abroad also supports this possibility. It is worth mentioning that representatives of three opposition parties, namely the IYI Party, DEVA and Memleket Partisi, voted in favor of this permission. However, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which voted against, made it clear that if it wins the elections, Turkey will withdraw from all military conflicts and negotiate with the Assad regime in Syria. It is interesting to note that the CHP’s closest ally in the opposition, Meral Akşener, supports the conduct of a new Turkish military operation in Syria and, judging by her campaign rhetoric, intends to compete with the ruling party on the basis of militarism rather than advocating peace, as does Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the CHP.
As for the possible targets of the new military operation, according to military expert Kirill Semyonov, they will most likely be the Kurdish communist formations in Ayn al-Arab (Kobani), Tell Rifaat and Malikiyah. However, Semyonov believes that the Turkish leadership is unlikely to carry out operations in Manbij, Tel Tamr, and Ain Issa, as this could provoke a conflict with other external actors whose interests could be affected.
In turn, one of these players — Russia — could use this operation to conduct joint operations with the Assad regime against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in southern Idlib in order to establish strong control over the M4 highway. However, the question is whether the parties will be able to reach an agreement on the redistribution of spheres of influence and whether they will be able to stay within these boundaries, considering that the Assad regime has long dreamed of ending the resistance in all of Idlib, while the pro-Turkish Syrian forces would like to take control of areas south of the M4 highway. This could potentially lead to a conflict between Ankara and Moscow.
Speaking of conflicting interests between Ankara and Moscow, they are also present in an area that could become the stage for a larger conflict — eastern Ukraine. Just yesterday we wrote about the first use of Turkish Bayraktar drones by the Ukrainian armed forces against pro-Moscow separatists in Donbass. And now it has been reported that Russian sanitary authorities have found something in Turkish mandarins that makes their import into Russia impossible, similar to the ban on Turkish tomatoes during the conflict over the Russian plane shot down by Turkey. Despite these tensions, however, both sides are still engaged in military buildups along the Ukrainian border. In particular, Ukraine has recently agreed to conduct sabotage operations across its borders if necessary, and Ukrainian presidential aide Oleksiy Arestovych stated that such operations would be carried out, including against energy facilities in Russia, in the event of a full-scale military conflict. Arestovych also mentioned that Ukraine is working on its own missile program, which will enable its missiles to reach Moscow just as Russian missiles can reach Kyiv.
Whether there will now be a Ukrainian-Russian confrontation in Donbass, or whether the sides will once again limit themselves to muscle-flexing, remains to be seen. On the one hand, it is probably not in Ukraine’s interest to get into a conflict with the militarily superior Russian army at this time. It is more likely that Ukraine will focus on gradually strengthening its positions along the line of contact, supplying new advanced weapons such as Bayraktars, and developing defense programs that can ensure parity with Russia. On the other hand, it is possible that the current escalation is part of a strategy involving external forces with which the Ukrainian leadership is associated. In any case, it is clear that Ukraine is following in Azerbaijan’s footsteps and preparing for a military solution of the frozen Donbass conflict when the optimal opportunity arises.
Speaking of Karabakh and Azerbaijan, this week the Turkish leader visited several liberated territories, and the head of Turkey’s Directorate of Religious Affairs performed the Azan in the Shusha mosque. It is also significant that Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ilham Aliyev opened the first section of the Nagorno-Karabakh corridor, which will connect the Azerbaijani mainland with Nakhchivan and through it with Turkey via the Armenian territory. It was announced that the corridor should be completed and put into operation by 2023, in accordance with the agreements reached at the end of the Second Karabakh War on the unblocking of communications in the region. At the same time, the Turkish President once again stated that if Armenia makes peace with Azerbaijan (on the condition of renouncing territorial claims), Turkey is ready to develop cooperation with Armenia that will serve mutual interests. It’s worth mentioning that today it became known that an ethnic Armenian, a graduate of an Armenian school in Istanbul named Berke Adjaran, is being considered for the position of head of one of the districts in Turkey. This would be an unprecedented event and illustrates Erdogan’s readiness to take steps against the Armenian people if they show prudence. Erdogan’s statements, as well as the ambiguous reaction of the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who objected to the term «Zangazur Corridor» but stated that Armenia is ready to block communication, have created more hysteria among the Armenian hawks and their patrons. In particular, Semyon Bagdasarov stated that the opening of the borders between Armenia and Turkey for trade and cooperation would mean the end of Armenia, turning it into a «second Georgia» allegedly conquered by Turkish capital. He did not explain what is wrong with a landlocked Armenia becoming a prosperous tourist country. Commenting on the joint steps taken by Turkey and Azerbaijan, Maria Zakharova called for avoiding actions that would increase tensions in the region and urged Azerbaijan and Armenia to unblock communications with each other under the auspices of Russia.
Thus, as can be seen, Moscow and Ankara have a number of contradictions that carry the potential for military conflict, and it is unclear how long they will be able to balance on the brink.