The escalation of hostilities in Idlib, the increasing number of direct clashes between Turkish and Russian forces, and the resulting deaths on both sides have brought Russia and Turkey dangerously close to a threshold.
In this story, both literally and figuratively, the Bosphorus Strait can become a turning point, and more specifically, its closure by Turkey to Russian military ships has been actively discussed in recent days.
To do so, Turkey can invoke Article 20 or 21 of the Montreux Convention, which allows it to block the strait in the event of war or imminent military danger.
Meanwhile, President Erdogan directly states that what is happening in Syria with Turkey’s involvement is a war, which is more than justified considering the growing losses of the Turkish army there.
Legally, Turkey can do this unilaterally, and its decision can be overturned by a two-thirds majority of UN members.
Whether Putin’s Russia can muster enough support to do so remains a big question.
But it is clear that such a measure, which would effectively cut off supplies to the Russian base in Tartus, would be extreme.
In 2015, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called such a development apocalyptic.
At the same time, it is the actions of the Kremlin and the Assad regime in Idlib that are currently pushing Turkey in this direction.