Turkish combat drones have once again demonstrated their effectiveness, this time in Libya, in the service of the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA). After massive and effective strikes by Turkish unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) against Haftar militiamen who had taken control of the Al-Watiya airbase, GNA forces launched an offensive and inflicted significant damage on the enemy. Information about the control of the base currently varies; however, in any case, the government army managed to carry out a spectacular attack that resulted in the destruction of a significant amount of enemy equipment and personnel in response to repeated provocations and ceasefire violations by Haftar’s forces.
It is no secret that Haftar’s forces are actively supported by the Russian PMC Wagner. The supply of the Russian groups in both Syria and Libya depends on the Black Sea-Mediterranean grouping of the Russian Naval and Aerospace Forces, which has recently suffered additional losses, not from enemy action, but from wear and technical malfunctions. For example, an L-39 crashed in the Krasnodar region, killing the pilot, and a Su-27 crashed in the Black Sea. Two aircraft lost in one day due to non-combat losses is a vivid illustration of the current state of the armed forces of a country aspiring to become a Mediterranean power.
It must be understood that the Syrian and Libyan campaigns have become even more burdensome for both Turkey and Russia in light of the enormous economic challenges posed by the coronavirus pandemic. However, geography and logistics simply work in Turkey’s favor in this situation, just as they do for Russia in the Crimea and Donbass. Conversely, fighting in Libya for Russia is akin to Turkey sending its PMC to fight in Donbass, an expensive and strategically unpromising endeavor.
Therefore, in addition to geography, the economic crisis and the coronavirus pandemic are expected to increasingly influence the course of this geopolitical confrontation.