The events of the second half of February 2020 have sharply defined the question we posed in the first half of the month in the article «Turkey in Syria: What’s Next?» (https://golosislama.com/news.php?id=38056). However, we can now give a clear answer to it. Ankara’s lack of a clear political position regarding the Syrian rebel formations it controls has brought the situation to a point where achieving even a temporary peace from a position of strength is impossible. As we have mentioned many times before, it was necessary to clearly define who among the rebels is with Turkey and who is not, and to provide guarantees and agreements to the interim government and the Syrian National Army in order to draw a red line in front of Moscow and Damascus, crossing which would mean war.
But now, after yesterday’s events, all possible red lines have already been crossed and it has become clear that there is no alternative to war. Moreover, the situation has taken such a turn that the war is not about preserving the remnants of Idlib, but about destroying either the Assad regime or the whole Erdogan project.
Objectively, Turkey has military forces capable of defeating the entire army of the Assad regime. This is what Russian military experts believe (not to be confused with the propaganda supporting Putin’s adventure in various Telegram channels). According to experts, such as former officer of the RF General Staff, graduate of the RF General Staff Military Academy and former editor-in-chief of the newspaper «Military-Industrial Courier», retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok, a Turkish army corps, including the 3, the 20th and 172nd Armored Brigades, the 16th and 70th Mechanized Brigades, the 2nd and 6th Motorized Infantry Brigades, the 2nd, 34th and 48th Border Brigades, the 3rd Commando Brigade and the 5th Mountain Commando Brigade.
This is despite the fact that Turkey still has eight other corps, as well as 3,500 tanks (including 354 Leopard 2A4), 2,800 ACV-15 (AIFV) IFVs, 3,500 M113 armored personnel carriers, over 3,000 armored vehicles (Akrep, ZPT, Cobra), over 6,000 artillery pieces and MLRS (including 350 self-propelled T-155 Firtina howitzers and 300 towed 155mm Panter howitzers), about 300 attack and multipurpose helicopters, 235 Lockheed Martin F-16C/D fighters, 47 upgraded F-4E-2020 fighter-bombers, 14 modern German submarines, 16 frigates and 6 corvettes.
According to Russian military experts, Turkey has enough military capabilities to defeat Bashar al-Assad’s army in a matter of days. However, this scenario implies that the Turkish army would unleash its full might against the forces of the Assad regime, rather than limiting itself to isolated PR strikes, as is currently the case.
What is stopping Recep Tayyip Erdogan from taking this step, which his numerous promises and statements oblige him to do? There seem to be two main factors.
The first and less obvious factor is that the current Turkish army, despite its objective superiority, lacks experience in large-scale military operations that cannot be considered as regular counter-terrorism operations against PKK militants. Facing serious resistance from Assad’s main forces and suffering significant losses, including the at least partial destruction of Turkish troops besieged in observation posts, the Turkish army will have to learn how to fight and pay for this education with a significant number of casualties, which Turkish society is not used to. Erdogan, who is struggling to win every new election in Turkey because they are taken seriously in contrast to Putin’s Russia, not to mention Assad’s Syria, has tried and continues to try to minimize the losses of Turkish troops. However, yesterday showed that the possibilities of balancing between «neither peace nor war» have been exhausted — the Turkish army is starting to suffer significant combat losses, which is logical considering its participation in combat operations. These losses will only increase with time. Thus, Erdogan’s Turkey finds itself in a situation described by Niccolo Machiavelli, where «war cannot be avoided, it can only be delayed to the advantage of the enemy.
The second stopping factor for Erdogan is Russia, or rather its armed forces in Syria, especially the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS RF). However, many military experts are convinced that the Russian group has no chance against Turkey in a direct confrontation in a specific Syrian theater of operations. The aforementioned Colonel Khodarenok writes about this: «The Khmeimim airbase currently has just over a dozen warplanes, and Erdogan can easily deploy 235 F-16C/D fighters to the battlefield, which are comparable in their tactical and technical characteristics to Russian Su-30 and Su-35 aircraft. Russia does not have the real capacity to increase its VKS grouping in Syria by a factor of 20, neither in a short period of time nor due to the insufficient operational capacity of the available Russian air bases on Syrian territory. Moreover, in order to successfully conduct a regional conflict, Russia would have to transfer an unimaginable amount of aviation fuel and ammunition to Syria. The real capabilities for this are lacking.»
It is also worth noting, as we have already mentioned, that in such a development of events Turkey will block the Bosphorus Strait for the Russian fleet, trapping it in the Black Sea, where it also has a clear advantage over Russia in terms of the ratio of naval forces in the area, and as a result it will cut off the Russian base in Khmeimim from supplies.
Undoubtedly, such a turn of events would bring not only the two countries but the entire world to the brink of a major war. Russia’s inability to resist Turkey in Syria and the Black Sea region can only be compensated by the use of nuclear weapons or at least strategic missile forces and strategic aviation. Naturally, as a rational person (unlike his opponents), Erdogan does not want to risk such a development of events, especially since he is uncertain whether he will receive the necessary support from his nominal allies in NATO, first and foremost the United States. On the other hand, the Kremlin is acting as if it is confident that Turkey will not receive such support and will be left alone against Russian nuclear weapons in the event of a full-scale war. However, it is obvious that such confidence is not based on any reliable guarantees. Even if someone in Washington has given Moscow such an indication, he may have either misunderstood what was to be said or not passed it on to the right people when it was crucial. This happened in the past with Saddam Hussein, who was also convinced that he could swallow Kuwait without any consequences.
However, despite all these stopping factors, the difference between the positions of Putin and Erdogan in this case is that the latter has nowhere to retreat, unlike the former in a similar situation. Putin once confessed that he was ready to use nuclear weapons if NATO started a war against Russian forces in Crimea. But today, Idlib is Turkey’s «Crimea» because its capitulation would be a political defeat for Erdogan and his project, no matter how it is justified by demagogy and propaganda maneuvers. Moreover, it is no longer a question of preserving the existing positions or even returning to the positions before the last offensive of the Assad regime, as Erdogan demands. Assad’s forces will not go anywhere on their own. Therefore, Erdogan will either have to surrender to them, committing political suicide, or accept the proposal of Erdogan’s main ally in the parliamentary elections, Devlet Bahceli, who said the following: «Solving the Syrian crisis through diplomatic and political means is a deception and a distraction. Until Assad is removed from the throne, there will be no peace in Syria or Turkey. If necessary, the Turkish people, who have no other choice, must start planning for the conquest of Damascus.
At the same time, it should be noted that now we are not talking about maintaining the current positions or simply returning to the positions before the last Assad offensive, which is what Erdogan is demanding. Assad’s forces will not leave voluntarily. Therefore, Erdogan will either have to surrender to them and commit political suicide or accept the proposal of Devlet Bahceli, Erdogan’s main ally, who said: «Solving the Syrian crisis through diplomatic and political means is a deception and a distraction. Until Assad is removed from the throne, there will be no peace in Syria or Turkey. If necessary, the Turkish people, who have no other choice, must start planning for the conquest of Damascus».
In conclusion, despite all the obstacles, Erdogan is in a situation where he has no choice but to continue the conflict. However, the outcome of this conflict is uncertain and could have dire consequences not only for Turkey and Russia, but for the entire world.