The flight of the Russian group from Kherson and its inevitable liberation by the Ukrainian army is the most important news for our region and one of the most important in the world. And what is important here is not only that the Russian army suffered another crushing defeat, but also that it happened against the background of two circumstances on which the Russians were counting. Neither the mobilization that turned into mobilization nor the «strikes on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure» are capable of preventing the Kremlin’s defeat.
Moreover, while the latter complicates the life of the civilian population of Ukraine and (for many reasons) practically does not affect the course of the military operations, the former, under the conditions of the complete disorganization of the Russian military-political system, only exacerbates the chaos in the army and, more broadly, in Russian society (if it can be called that), leading to senseless casualties.
What are the developments now? Of all the unused means that the patriotic people were counting on, only one remains — a tactical nuclear strike. But it will not help them turn the tide of the war, it will only worsen the situation for Russia, with unpredictable consequences. And if not, there are two scenarios.
The first is a retreat to a deep defense in the south of the Kherson, Zaporizhia and Kharkiv regions, which the Ukrainian army will gradually squeeze and expose. With the prospect of returning to Crimea and the so-called DPR/LPR in the first half of next year.
The second is that the forces withdrawn from Kherson and/or the accumulated reserves will be thrown by the Russian command from the territory of Belarus to the western border of Ukraine in order to cut off its supplies and thus turn the tide of the war and force Kyiv to negotiate.
What do these two scenarios mean for ordinary Russians, including representatives of Muslim peoples who are being mobilized? Death, death, death. In the first case, simply a lot of deaths, because the gaps in the defense will be filled by the mobilized. This is what Igor Dmitriev, one of the experts who has become disillusioned with the war and considers it long lost for Russia, writes about it: «Let’s think about what’s going to happen next. The stabilization of the front along the Dnieper will be temporary. We do not know what they have agreed on at the top. But if we proceed from a purely military point of view, the winter will also be difficult. The rocket attacks across the river will not stop, only their nature will change. Now they will not hit buildings and equipment, but living forces with shrapnel modifications of missiles. The range of the strike will allow you to shoot through the area that we call the «land bridge to Crimea». Plus long-range artillery. First of all, the newly mobilized are hit. Why? First of all, they do not understand well what they will face, and the idiots responsible for preparing them for service do not understand how to hide from rocket attacks. Hiding and minimizing losses can only be done through decentralization. This means that each regiment should have many permanent staging areas, not just one. But for the newly mobilized, this is practically impossible to organize. Why not? Because the supply system does not allow it. I seem to have written to you that it is already impossible due to the lack of supply of one component of supply — water. The unit is divided among the companies and set up in different places in the field. They wait there for water for several days, do not wait and return to the village. That’s it, decentralization is over. This is only water, and there is much more. Winter is coming. In the field conditions there will be a lack of tools and materials for building bunkers, sleeping bags, clothes, food, cigarettes. Communication. Understanding what they are doing. And rockets will fly over their heads and hit neighboring bunkers.
But there will be even more bodies in the case of the second option, that is, a throw from Belarus to the western border of Ukraine. The Ukrainian army is well prepared for it, so it will be a natural slaughter for the Russians and Belarusians who have the misfortune to come there. But now we are not talking about abstract Russians, but about those among whom your mobilized relatives, neighbors, friends, acquaintances, etc. could be. Chechens, Dagestanis, Kabardins, Balkars, Nogais, Tatars, Bashkirs, as well as Uzbeks and Tajiks, and even Slavs who have embraced Islam.
What should we do in this situation? Let’s repeat what has been said many times. It’s time to leave — for some to go somewhere, for others to leave someone, depending on who has the courage and strength to do so. Spread the truth about the war, tell people that it is already lost and that it is by nature senseless and criminal. Talk about the mobilization, the losses and the conditions in which the mobilized find themselves. Break the government propaganda and boycott the supporters of the regime and the war. At least, if you don’t have the strength for more, alienate people from them. And then gather strength to overthrow them and liberate yourselves completely from their power. The example of Kherson, which only a few months ago they called «forever reunited with Russia,» convincingly shows that their time is short. And it is already running out. Prepare yourselves for what is to come and bring it closer.