In recent months, or even years, «Voice of Islam» has continued to cover events in and around Syria, but now in the mode of sluggish news analysis. The reason, it seems, is clear — in the current situation, it is no longer necessary to talk about the possibility of regional or global breakthroughs in this country for the Islamic project, on which its supporters have pinned their hopes for many years. The best that can now be hoped for is the preservation of at least a small stronghold in the northeast of the country, where the remnants of Sunni resistance forces will remain under the protection of Turkey.
Against this backdrop, recent events seemed intriguing. I am referring to US President Donald Trump’s statement on the withdrawal of all American forces from northern Syria, and the events that followed.
It should be recalled that Trump’s announcement was presented as not being coordinated with his own team, namely his military and political bloc. At least, the former US Secretary of Defense James Mattis resigned demonstratively precisely because of his disagreement with this decision, which, according to media reports, he learned from Donald Trump’s Twitter. After that, Donald Trump had a phone conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, during which, according to media reports, the American president said the following about Syria «Okay, it’s all yours. We are done.»
This was followed by the announcement that Erdogan had invited Trump to visit Turkey, which was supposed to mark a new phase in relations between the two countries and the end of the confrontation between them in recent years. Against this backdrop, it was reported that the Pentagon and the US State Department had approved the delivery of Patriot missile systems to Turkey for $3.5 billion. For his part, Erdogan, who had repeatedly declared that Turkish and loyal Syrian Sunni forces would soon take control of the city of Manbij, announced his willingness to postpone this operation for the period of the withdrawal of American forces from northern Syria, which is about two months.
Why could all this be interesting for the first time in a long time? Because in this case, if the areas controlled by the Americans would be handed over to the Turks and the rebels, Syria could have a fundamentally new reality. In such a scenario, the Syrian opposition, which is currently cornered under Turkish protection, could theoretically become a force equal to the regime. But, of course, this scenario would require the resolution of a number of political issues. First, the current Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) would have to be incorporated into the united Syrian opposition — both its Arab and Kurdish components, whose relations with the Sunni rebels have traditionally been hostile. Second, this option obviously required the resumption of cooperation in this direction between Turkey, on the one hand, and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, on the other, which have recently become the de facto sponsors of the SDF, especially its Arab component.
The feasibility of these factors has already raised serious questions. After all, Turkey’s relations with the Saudis and Emiratis have been steadily deteriorating in recent years, reaching their peak during the scandal over the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. On the other hand, as «Voice of Islam» has repeatedly written recently, the Saudis and Emiratis have begun to reconcile with the Assad regime.
In this situation, today’s news of the entry of Assad’s forces into Manbij at the invitation of the Kurdish YPG, which the Americans were supposed to leave alone with the Turks, unfortunately did not sound like a thunderbolt from the blue sky. It should be noted, however, that according to more detailed information, the regime forces have not entered Manbij itself at this point, but have taken positions on the possible advance lines of the Turkish and allied Sunni rebel forces. Although this changes little in essence — in any case, calling a spade a spade, the Assad regime has managed to snatch Manbij from under Erdogan’s nose, which, as stated, was to be handed over to him by Trump.
This was clearly done with the knowledge and active participation of Russia, whose representatives have already confirmed their mediating role in this event. In this regard, it has been announced that consultations will be held tomorrow between representatives of Russia and Turkey, who, according to their statements, refuse to recognize the fact of Manbij’s transition under the regime’s control and claim that the YPG is exerting «psychological pressure» on Turkey through disinformation about it.
In this context, a number of questions remain unanswered, making it difficult to understand exactly what happened. Was the entry of Assad’s forces into the outskirts of Manbij coordinated with the Americans, who verbally promised to hand it over to Turkey? If so, was it done personally by Trump, who thus outsmarted Erdogan, or by his rogue generals, who, judging by the media image, are openly counteracting the American president’s policy in Syria?
Moreover, was what happened really such a surprise to Erdogan, and did he really intend to occupy the niche that became available after the departure of the Americans? And how did he plan to do this in the midst of the conflict with the Saudis and Emiratis, without reaching a political solution with the Arab and Kurdish forces in the north that would allow them to be incorporated into the new reality?
If the answer to the first question is unlikely to be given, the answer to the second question can be seen in Ankara’s actions in the near future. Specifically, will it continue to seek control over northeastern Syria, or will it eventually declare that it has no objection to the regime taking control, provided that it removes the «PKK terrorists,» the main irritant for Turkey, from there?
However, we dare to assume that under the current circumstances, it will be difficult to achieve the transfer of the areas controlled by the SDF to Turkey and the rebels from all perspectives. And it will be much easier to present the case as if Turkey did everything it could, but once again it could not jump higher than its own head…
So, unfortunately, there is little chance to preserve and develop the intrigues that arose after Trump’s statement and his conversation with Erdogan, as well as to change the actual balance of power between the regime and the opposition at the moment. However, we would be very happy to be wrong about this…