If the situation in Kazakhstan is currently on hold, the first round of negotiations between NATO and Putin’s Russia has become the main topic of this week. However, it is not impossible that it will be the last round of these negotiations. NATO representatives tried to sweeten the pill in their conclusion, on the one hand, by declaring that they do not intend to accept the Kremlin’s ultimatum regarding guarantees of non-expansion of their bloc, and on the other hand, by stating that the parties have decided to continue negotiations, agree to continue their missions in Brussels and Moscow, and so on.
In turn, the talking heads of the Putin regime, having caught their breath, began to show their irritation with the results of the negotiations. They are understandably irritated because it was not NATO that gave them an ultimatum, but they gave it to NATO, and in such a situation NATO’s actual refusal to comply with this ultimatum means their demonstrative humiliation and forces them to take some action in order not to look like pathetic clowns.
That is why Sergei Lavrov today staged a performance in the genre of «hold me back». «Russia’s patience with the West’s actions has come to an end, we’ve been using it for a long time, now it’s time to go,» he threatened. «The British are building bases in Ukraine. They are building bases in the Sea of Azov. This categorically does not suit us, it is an unacceptable approach… The participation of Western instructors in the conflict in Donbass will cross all red lines and mean a direct confrontation between the Russian people and the NATO military,» and so on.
Incidentally, in response to the Kremlin’s repeated threats to resort to military action if the ultimatum is not accepted, both NATO and a number of its member countries have recently declared that the bloc is ready for a military conflict with Russia, although it does not want one. In other words, the Kremlin has put itself in a situation where it has to choose between bad and very bad scenarios.
The bad scenario is to receive a rebuff and admit that they were essentially trying to intimidate NATO, and to move on to carrying out the threats with which their ultimatum was backed, which they did not intend to do. In other words, to call a spade a spade, to humiliate themselves not only in front of the whole world but also in front of their «nuclear voters» to whom they have been feeding the myth of the greatness of the country achieved under their leadership.
An even worse scenario for them would be to go beyond words. At least it is good that, judging by everything, they do not intend to resort to the military escalation with NATO that their most die-hard propagandists are threatening them with, because they understand what it means for the world as a whole and for them in particular. And NATO, for its part, has made it clear on several occasions that although it stands by Ukraine and will provide it with all kinds of assistance, it will not fight for it against Russia, as it is not yet a member of this bloc.
In this situation, it is most likely that the Kremlin will decide to go to war with Ukraine, which is practically being presented to them as bait to lure them into a trap — there is no way not to see this obvious trap. However, it is unlikely that we should expect a war aimed at «liquidation of the state of Ukraine», its full-scale occupation or division into two parts, which is the dream of the near-Kremlin chauvinists — it seems that they don’t even have enough strength for that. In such a situation we can expect a concentrated attack on Ukrainian military units, political and infrastructure facilities, but real offensive actions in this case will most likely be concentrated on a fairly limited front.
According to serious military analysts, it will most likely be an advance to the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which will allow them to declare the «reunification of Donbass». Another task within this plan may be the capture of Mariupol and an attempt to create a land corridor to Crimea along the Azov coast, depending on the success of the offensive.
This scenario will be very bad for the Kremlin for many reasons. First, the sanctions imposed in response could send the Russian economy back to the Stone Age, figuratively speaking. And whether this regime, despite all its repressive capabilities, can withstand the discontent that will follow the wave of patriotic euphoria is a very big question. Second, even such a limited military operation might not be a walk in the park, given the combat experience that the Ukrainian army already has and the indirect support that can be provided to it — weapons, instructors, and so on.
Of course, this scenario is not good for Ukraine either. In such a case, thousands of people on both sides will again die, tens of thousands will become refugees, and the economy and infrastructure will suffer significant damage. That is why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, at the risk of losing face, is today asking NATO to organize negotiations between him and Vladimir Putin. Well, perhaps this is the right step for the president, but for example, Zelensky’s adviser on military issues, Alexei Arestovich, believes that the Ukrainian army is ready to give a worthy rebuff to the aggressor.
In short, given the choice between war and humiliation, it would be desirable for the Kremlin to choose humiliation rather than war, since it is not unaccustomed to humiliation. But the chances of a military solution to the conflict have greatly increased, and it may happen that by choosing war the Kremlin will not avoid disgrace and will receive it as a result of its militaristic adventurism.