The currency crisis and attempts to shake up the political situation in Turkey on the one hand, and the formation of a new coalition government in Germany on the other, are some of the major global news stories of the past week. These events are more interconnected than they might seem at first glance. No, I am not suggesting that the new German government is responsible for the currency crisis in Turkey — since it has not yet been formed, it could not have provoked it. However, the German government can use the crisis for its own interests, and the long-term consequences of the Turkish crisis can in turn affect the new German policy.
First of all, it is important to understand what is being discussed. The new German government, formed by a coalition of the Social Democrats, the Liberals and the Greens, is often referred to as the «traffic light» coalition. The colors of the parties roughly correspond to their function on a traffic light — the SPD is associated with red (stop), the Liberals with yellow (caution), and the Greens with green (go). In the new German government, the Greens want to go as fast as possible, the SPD will try to limit their ambitions, and the Liberals will maneuver between the two.
But where are the German Greens going? They are heading for a «brave new world» of ecological, gender-neutral, multicultural and politically correct socialism. The old-fashioned Germany of families based on the three Ks — children, kitchen, church — will be forgotten. The values of feminism and LGBT will be more actively promoted, marijuana will be legalized (this has already been agreed upon by the coalition members), and the green light will be given to generations already shaped by the new ideology, for which the voting age will be lowered to 16.
In addition to plans for a radical «greening» of German energy and everyday life, the focus is on attracting «fresh blood» to Germany. And this is understandable, because the carriers of these «new values» will not be having children, at least not in the numbers that the growing German economy needs as new workers, consumers and producers. To achieve this, the quotas for accepting refugees will be expanded, the conditions for family reunification with migrants will be liberalized, and the acquisition of German citizenship will be made easier. Now it will be enough to have lived in the country legally for only 5 years. Another revolutionary measure planned by the new government is the legalization of dual citizenship, i.e. the acquisition of German citizenship without giving up the citizenship of one’s country of origin.
So how does all this relate to what is happening in Turkey now? It is obvious that after the adoption of these measures, there will be a sharp increase in the number of Turkish citizens acquiring German citizenship, many of whom did not want to accept German citizenship in order to avoid losing their Turkish citizenship. Moreover, it is likely that the number of new Germans of Turkish origin will increase, both from the current and the new wave of refugees.
This is good for Turkey and Muslims, right? Let’s think about it.
Who in the new German government represents these new Germans with Turkish roots and is responsible for the German-Turkish direction in the ruling coalition?
Cem Özdemir, one of the ministers of the new government from the Green Party. He is an active proponent of the «rainbow» and «green» agenda in Germany and a fierce opponent of the ruling pro-Islamic nationalist alliance in Turkey. He is one of the active lobbyists for the recognition of the «Armenian Genocide» in Germany. It can be assumed that there is no need to continue…
Another member of the new government is the Minister of Culture, Claudia Roth. She is German, but clearly has a strong interest in Turkey with a long history of relations with the country. She was involved in the conflict with the government of Necmettin Erbakan in the 1990s, when she opened an NGO office in Istanbul and took care of left-wing terrorists from the PKK and radical feminists. In 2002, she chaired the German-Turkish parliamentary group in the Bundestag.
But how does all this relate to the current events in Turkey and their possible consequences? The thing is, the economic transformation that is taking place in Turkey is called different things — some call it a revolution, others «Chinafication». In both cases, the process is characterized by the short-term sacrifice of the living standards of the population, including the middle class, for the long-term priorities of economic development as understood by the ruling party.
The problem is that unlike in China, where the ruling party controls everything and can afford almost anything, in Turkey it has so far won in genuinely competitive elections and will theoretically have to do so again or try to do so in 2023 if these elections do not take place earlier. But the key words in these formulations are «so far» and «theoretically» because there is a significant risk that millions of voters will not appreciate this long-term economic transformation by the ruling party. This means that there are two possibilities. Either the ruling party loses the elections and goes into opposition, and a post-Erdogan era begins. That is a separate story that requires a separate conversation, which is premature at this point. The other story is if the ruling party decides to carry out a political «Chinafication» after the economic one, as a result of which it will no longer have to win fair elections… Well, let’s say it would be like «Russification» or «Belarussification», depending on your preference.
So what does Germany have to do with all this? The point is that as the largest country with the largest Turkish community, Turks are likely to flock there immediately after the easing of immigration rules and the acquisition of citizenship — given the declining standard of living in their own country and the high wages in Germany, which the new government plans to increase even further. And if there is a political «Chinafication» of Turkey in 2023, this immigration will accelerate even more.
But who will be the first to immigrate from Turkey to Germany under such conditions? It can be assumed that it will be those who are dissatisfied with the current government, especially among the secular-oriented Turks. They will give a voice to people like Cem Özdemir and in turn provide them with votes. And that will be bad in two ways.
First, it will strengthen those in Germany who are calling for a tougher policy towards Turkey. Considering that Germany is one of the most important EU countries and has so far been the one to oppose France by taking a more accommodating line towards Turkey, this could lead to a further deterioration of Turkish-European relations in general.
Second, it will be bad for conservative, Islam-oriented Turks in Germany, of whom there are many. So far, the Germans have been afraid to put too much pressure on them to avoid accusations of xenophobia. But if this pressure comes from the Turks themselves living in Germany, it will no longer be called xenophobia. In this case, the polarization will not be along ethnic lines so much as along values, and in such a scenario, «progressive Turks» will present themselves as patriots of Germany, while conservatives will be labeled as Turkey’s fifth column — a hostile element in the country under these circumstances.
The same applies to other Muslims, for whom the ease of entry and naturalization in Germany may be «compensated» by increased pressure within German society on Islamic values and principles. Moreover, this pressure will not be under the banner of nationalism, but on the contrary, under the banner of tolerance. They will not prevent you from wearing a hijab, but they will ask you to attach a rainbow ribbon to it, and if you refuse, you will be called a «hostile element» in the tolerant society.
Of course, some people on both sides of the border will rejoice at such developments. They may say, «The West is the West, the East is the East, and they will never come together. But in reality, such developments conceal many risks, including for Turkey, which may face a brain drain, a rupture in relations with Europe, sanctions and, as a result, increased dependence on China, Iran and Russia.
Therefore, it is hoped that the Turkish authorities will be able to pull the country out of the economic «Chinafication» deadlock and prevent political «Chinafication», while the Muslim community in Germany will resist the «green wave». As for the Germans… let them deal with their own problems.