The signing of a package of documents on allied relations with Putin’s Russia by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev the day after the recognition of the so-called LPR and DPR is a very significant step. And given the world’s reaction to Putin’s actions, it is quite controversial.
It is clear why Putin needs this. Both his words and his actions indicate that he has embarked on the creation of USSR 2.0, as we wrote during the recent events in Kazakhstan. We must understand that the Kremlin’s forces are limited, so it must determine its primary and secondary tasks and assess how far it can go in one direction or another. And if Ukraine is now militarily «tested» by the «DPR» and «LPR», in other cases the same iron fist can be used, but not at the nose, but from a distance.
Based on the results of these fist fights and blackmail, it will be clear who and in what capacity will join the Union and its allies. The «DPR», «LPR», South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transnistria are likely to be directly included, they will also try to include Belarus (but it is not guaranteed), and they will try to include several other breakaway republics separated from Ukraine, possibly united into one. We emphasize that this is a forecast of their probable plans, not a forecast of what will actually happen.
As for the other post-Soviet states, it will be more complicated; Azerbaijan is one of the key regions for the Kremlin in this sense. American geopolitician Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote in the late 1990s that in addition to the geopolitical orientation of Ukraine, the geopolitical orientation of Azerbaijan plays a key role in the plans for the final liquidation of the Moscow-centered post-Soviet space or its recreation. Therefore, it is extremely important for Putin, who is striving for the latter, to turn Azerbaijan into an ally.
The question is, why does Azerbaijan need this? And there can be several answers. First of all, it is clear that the Azerbaijani leadership has made the resolution of the Karabakh issue and, in a broader sense, the Armenian issue (Nagorno-Karabakh corridor) an absolute geopolitical priority. Ilham Aliyev will undoubtedly go down in Azerbaijani history as the leader who almost solved the Karabakh problem by liberating most of the Azerbaijani territories occupied by Armenia.
But no matter what he says about the solution of the Karabakh problem, it can be accepted only with the aforementioned qualifications — «almost» and «most parts», if we are talking about the liberated territories. Because as long as at least some of the internationally recognized territories of Azerbaijan are out of its control, which is the case today, the Karabakh issue cannot be considered as finally solved, and this is the very fist that the Kremlin is shaking from afar in this case. Because today this uncontrolled territory is controlled not by Armenian forces, but by Russia.
This was the price Aliyev agreed to pay when he liberated most of the territories, declared a ceasefire and introduced Russian «peacekeepers» into the conflict zone to protect the remaining Armenian enclave. It can be considered a mistake, but it is also understandable, because otherwise Russia could have intervened in the war on the side of Armenia, which would have had unpredictable consequences. However, the price must be paid, because in the end Aliyev has become a hostage of Vladimir Putin on this issue, as well as Nikol Pashinyan, to whom he guarantees the preservation of the truncated Armenian enclave.
This is what we wrote about after the war, including the justification of Turkey’s initiatives aimed at reconciliation with Armenia and its integration into regional projects in order to detach it from the Kremlin. Of course, by recognizing the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and directly reaching an agreement with it on the remaining unresolved issues, be it the Armenian enclave on Azerbaijani territory or the Zangezur corridor on Armenian territory, until this happens both sides remain hostages of the Kremlin, which will try to make them its satellites, if not directly include them in its USSR 2.0 project.
And Ilham Aliyev is currently forced to play this role, especially in the face of the increasing aggression of his new-old ally, who, if Azerbaijan moves too sharply towards Turkey, may recognize the «Nagorno-Karabakh Republic». Just as he recognized the «DPR» and the «LPR» yesterday, which is what the Armenian revanchists hope for, the question is whether this step of Ilham Aliyev is purely forced.
If so, it is understandable — if there is such an opportunity, it is better to gather strength and wait for this dying empire to die, and use this time to pursue one’s own goals in its shadow. It is worse if it is an ideological and corporate choice, considering that both Heydar and Ilham Aliyev and Vladimir Putin belong to the same Soviet corporation; hopefully this is not the case, and Ilham Aliyev will not lead Azerbaijan into USSR 2.0.
After all, what is the point of liberating most of Karabakh at the cost of losing the independence of all of Azerbaijan? By the way, this is exactly what Putin wanted from Ukraine through the so-called Minsk agreements, but Ukraine chose to acknowledge the temporary loss of its territories in exchange for their return at the cost of dependence on the Kremlin.
And this is a vivid refutation of Putin’s reassuring statements today that Russia has no intention of restoring the empire and recognizes the sovereignty of all countries, and the exception with Ukraine is due to the interference of an external factor. According to this logic, Putin can «find» this «external factor» at any moment, after which he will remember that Lenin created one or another republic, and Russia «gifted» it with a certain territory.
We hope that Ilham Aliyev, while playing his game with them out of necessity, will be able to preserve the national independence which was not given but earned by the Azerbaijani people in the bloody January events of 1990. So that Azerbaijan does not have to do it again, to oppose the new pro-Moscow authorities.