As the U.S. gave the green light (once again…) for Turkey to carry out its long-announced operation in northeastern Syria, Dmitry Peskov, the spokesman for «dear friend» Erdogan, warned Turkish partners against rash actions and expressed doubt that they understood the Americans’ words correctly. «How can Erdogan talk about the US withdrawal? You see, here we must first of all focus on the statements of Washington’s representatives,» the Kremlin mouthpiece said, apparently without bothering to familiarize himself with the official statement of the US State Department on the withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria and the start of a new Turkish operation there, which we wrote about earlier today in the first half of the day.
«In this case, it is very important to avoid any actions that could create obstacles to the Syrian settlement. We know that certain prospects are opening up, we understand that the road ahead will be very long and difficult. But now, when the formation of the Syrian constitutional committee has been completed, when the dates for its meetings have already been set, it is very important to refrain from any steps that could harm the cause of the Syrian settlement,» Peskov added.
In this regard, we would like to remind you of what we wrote in our recent article about the need for Erdogan to hurry if he is serious about carrying out his operation — not only does Bashar al-Assad’s regime protest against it, but also the growing opposition in Turkey, which calls for reconciliation with him and an end to support for Syrian rebels. As for the Kremlin, it must be given credit for its consistency — throughout the conflict it has unwaveringly supported its ally, the Assad regime, in both word and deed. Therefore, in this case, the Kremlin is reacting together with him. But what do they fear and what do they want from Turkey? They are afraid that in case of a successful military operation under the control of Turkish and pro-Turkish rebel forces, a sufficiently large, contiguous territory linked to Turkey will emerge, living and developing beyond the control of the regime and protected by the forces and commitments of the neighboring country.
If these rebels finally unite into a single military-political structure — the Syrian National Army under the command of the interim government — even if they join some negotiating or constitutional committees for the sake of decency, they will be able to undermine for years any projects and initiatives aimed at returning these territories to the regime’s control, as is happening in similar frozen conflicts around the world.
Moscow, as we have written for a long time, is promoting the «Tajik scenario» in Syria, according to which the rebels are offered integration into the regime’s structures in exchange for disarming and handing over territories, after which they are gradually neutralized. This is exactly what happened to the «reconciled rebels» in Daraa. But the most interesting thing is that all this is happening at the same time as attempts are being made to settle another conflict peacefully — in eastern Ukraine, where the Kremlin is pushing for exactly the opposite scenario within the so-called «Steinmeier formula». According to this, the Russian armed proxies from the so-called DPR and LPR will keep their weapons and territories, including the border with Russia, and will hold elections to the Ukrainian government bodies under their effective control, which will allow them to infiltrate their people there as well.
In other words, the Kremlin plans to achieve in Ukraine exactly what it does not want Turkey to achieve in Syria. And in order to prevent this, it is using demagogy about the constitution, which has long since become a fiction in Russia itself, not to mention Syria. And it acts this way because it knows very well that the reality will be determined not by the «constitution», which is not worth the paper it is written on, but by force, i.e. effective military control over a certain territory.
It should be noted, however, that the formal aspects should not be underestimated either. As we have written many times before, as long as the Assad regime remains the only contender for the role of «legitimate Syrian authority» in the world, any territorial gains by pro-Turkish forces will be legally and politically unprotected. This situation will change if Ankara officially recognizes the interim government as the legitimate Syrian authority, at least in the areas under its control, and follows its own «Steinmeier formula» in its relations with Damascus.