The following events took place last week, most of which were covered in Voice of Islam publications:
— A grand reception by thousands of Lebanese citizens for French President Emmanuel Macron as the desired savior of the country amidst the bankruptcy of its political class (it should be noted that another part of the Lebanese people has similar hopes for Turkey and Recep Tayyip Erdogan).
— The signing of a border demarcation agreement by Egypt and Greece against Turkey and Libya (GNA).
— The signing of agreements and the establishment of relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel, which are effectively directed against the struggle for an independent Palestine (presumably, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries may follow suit).
All these puzzles come together in a picture analyzed by Ibrahim Karagül, the editor-in-chief of «Yeni Şafak», a publication close to the ruling circles of Turkey, in his article «Who is building the Arab front against Turkey» (https://www.yenisafak.com/en/columns/ibrahimkaragul/who-is-building-the-arab-front-against-turkey-2047558).
Karagül writes: «Non-Arab Muslim countries are gaining strength, while Arab Muslim countries, especially those under the influence of Gulf Arabs (UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt under Abdel Fattah el-Sisi), are not only deteriorating but practically collapsing. Non-Arab Muslim countries are rapidly breaking away from Western tutelage and creating their own dynamics, while Arab countries are seeking even more Western protection and building only more dependent relationships. The non-Arab Muslim countries are fervently defending the Islamic world and the rights of Muslim communities, while the Arab countries are distancing themselves from all this, drifting further away from these claims and heritage. The new front led by the United Arab Emirates is particularly preoccupied with this, openly rejecting the Islamic political legacy».
Yes, the diagnosis is quite accurate. But such a diagnosis raises the questions: «Who is responsible?» and «What to do?»
The culprits seem to have been clear for several decades: the legacy of colonialism, corrupt puppet regimes and elites.
At the beginning of the second half of the 20th century, young secular Arab nationalists associated with the pan-Arab socialist Baath Party, in which the Arab masses in many countries placed their hopes, loudly exposed them. Gamal Abdel Nasser, Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi and others were the leaders of this wave. It cannot be said that they did not achieve successes, but the result of their many promising reigns was the reproduction of the same corruption, dictatorships, lawlessness, and in some cases, such as Bashar al-Assad’s Syria, blatant colonialism.
An alternative to this secular pan-Arab wave began to emerge around the same time with the wave of Islamic revival, primarily associated with the Muslim Brotherhood*. After decades of struggle in the Arab world, it has achieved very modest results, to say the least. Mohammad Morsi, who won the presidential elections in Egypt, was ousted and persecuted by the military, as were thousands of members of his party. In Tunisia, the brief rule of the Islamist party Ennahda ended after its defeat in the subsequent elections (although it managed to maintain its position in politics through a peaceful transfer of power). In Sudan, where a Brotherhood-affiliated general, Omar al-Bashir, seized power by force, he gradually distanced himself from their agenda and was eventually overthrown by a democratic revolution. And in Qatar, which is accused of supporting the Brotherhood, they exist as a backdrop and instrument of hereditary power whose principles are far from their ideals.
Within the Islamic camp, disappointment with the «too moderate» Brotherhoods led to the emergence and spread of uncompromising jihadism, starting with al-Qaeda* and culminating in ISIS*. But they, too, have been defeated in the Arab world and have once again shifted their center of gravity beyond its borders to Central Asia and Africa, where they compete with each other.
So yes, the state of the Arab world is what it is now. Moreover, it should be noted that regimes like the Emirati, Saudi, and Egyptian ones are currently relying on the fact that they can more or less maintain order in their «nation-states» under the conditions of the failure of supranational projects — first the pan-Arab and then the pan-Islamic.
But can it be said that they represent a complete opposite to Turkey or Pakistan? In terms of rhetoric, as Karagül writes, perhaps. But at the level of real politics, both Pakistan and Turkey also prioritize their national interests.
Yes, today Imran Khan allows himself to attack not only Delhi but also Washington. But he is forced to remain silent on the Uighur issue so as not to anger communist China, which Pakistan has chosen as an alternative to America as its new strategic partner.
While supporting Turkey in its many actions, we have written about similar behavior on its part. When Turkey turned to an expansionist policy, this time in the direction of the Mediterranean (https://golosislama.com/news.php?id=36804), it met with opposition from the affected «nation-states» in the Arab world, which, like all nation-states, seek allies in the struggle for their interests on the basis of who can support them, rather than on the basis of brotherhood based on faith.
Therefore, it is unlikely that the blame for creating an Arab front against Turkey should be placed solely on the Arabs. Another question, however, is that there is no point in crying over spilt milk, so now it is necessary to find an answer not so much to the question of «who is to blame» but rather to the question of «what to do».
And to this question — in this case, how to change the situation in the Arab world — there is no easy answer. At the very least, experience has shown that neither pan-Arab nor pan-Islamic experiments that ignore the interests of specific Arab states work. Two-sided alliances and relationships, such as Turkey’s relations with the Libyan GNA or Qatar, or its interactions with Morocco and Tunisia to counter plans to include them in the UAE-Egypt-Saudi coalition in Libya, work at a modest level.
Therefore, the most realistic scenario for solving the described problem of the Arab world is to change its picture piece by piece. That is, if a new global hurricane does not sweep them all at once…
* Prohibited in Russia