Bad news and good news at the end of the week.
Bad news: New draconian sentences for Muslims solely for peaceful activities that do not even apply to many murderers, rapists, and robbers (23 years in prison for Rais Mavlutov from Kazan); physical violence against government-approved activists in Muslim regions; the regime’s active application to the Russian opposition of the same methods of repression it has used against Muslims, demanding that Navalny’s headquarters be recognized as extremist throughout the country and targeting its leaders, including their abduction and mistreatment by security forces — regardless of one’s opinion of them, this is obviously bad for everyone, as these methods of communication between the authorities and society have become the norm in this country; The regime’s shift to openly terrorist methods of dealing with the rest of the world, from threats of military invasion and preparations for it (Ukraine) to terrorist attacks on targets in EU and NATO countries (Czech Republic).
You may ask what good news can come out of such a situation? The main good news is that it could have been worse, i.e. a large-scale war with Ukraine could have started, which seems to be postponed for now. At least, this can be concluded from the statement of the regime’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, about the withdrawal of troops from the Ukrainian border, which were moved there for the so-called «exercises,» to their permanent bases after the exercises are over.
What motivated the Kremlin, if not to abandon its already prepared invasion plans from all perspectives (ideological, informational and military), at least to postpone them? In addition to Ukraine’s readiness to resist, unlike in 2014 when it had a capable regular army, it is obviously the strong international pressure on the Kremlin to abandon its aggressive plans. They used both carrots and sticks, as one should with a beast — starting with the threat of new sanctions, the deployment of military ships in the conflict zone, the promise of arms supplies if necessary, and ending with Joe Biden’s offer to Vladimir Putin for a personal meeting.
The protests and solidarity actions with the hunger-striking Alexei Navalny on April 21 can also be seen as good news, although it must be admitted that they do not currently pose a serious threat to the regime on such a scale. The Russians are largely inactive, and in this situation effective pressure on the Kremlin can only come from the international arena. Much better news is that this pressure is beginning to increase, as shown by the reaction of the Czech Republic and its allies to the news that GRU terrorists blew up an ammunition depot on Czech territory in 2014. This means that the Kremlin has already turned to open terrorism in its relations with Europe (although the starting point should be the murder of Alexander Litvinenko long before the Skripal poisoning attempt), but a more or less meaningful response is only now emerging. By the way, according to some sources, the fact that the Kremlin’s terrorists blew up the Czech base was known to American intelligence, which had been analyzing their activities for several years, but it was kept under wraps by Donald Trump, who did not want to escalate relations with Putin. If this is true, it confirms what we wrote in connection with Biden’s victory — not the best of times are ahead for the Kremlin. But it’s not just the Kremlin; as we wrote then, it’s another story…
More active international pressure on this regime may soon be brought to bear on an issue that directly affects Russia’s Muslims. For example, in its annual report released this week, the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) proposed adding Russia to its list of «countries of particular concern» that systematically and egregiously violate the principle of religious freedom.
Among other persecuted religious groups in Russia, the report specifically mentions the persecution of Muslims. It notes that in the North Caucasus, «security forces act with impunity, arresting or abducting individuals suspected of even indirect links to the Islamist underground, as well as to the secular political opposition. In Crimea, Muslim groups that operated legally under Ukrainian rule are being suppressed. Repression of peaceful organizations that operate legally in most Western countries but are banned in Russia, such as Tablighi Jamaat and Nurjular, is also highlighted, as well as the draconian sentences imposed on members of the Hizb ut-Tahrir organization, which is recognized as terrorist in Russia but either operates legally in the West or is banned for reasons other than terrorism, such as opposition to the state of Israel. The report also includes cases of abuse by law enforcement and authorities against individual Muslim communities and mosques, such as searches and raids, as well as obstacles to the restoration of the historic mosque in Saratov.
The Commission will propose to the U.S. Congress new sanctions against Putin’s Russia, including for all of these repressions against Muslims.
Another direction of international pressure on the Russian regime shows that Ukraine can act not only as an object of protection, but also as an initiator of pressure in the interests of Russian Muslims. On April 21, at the UN Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues, an elder of the Erzya indigenous people of the Republic of Mordovia who lives in Ukraine, Bolian Syres, spoke on behalf of the Ukrainian delegation and highlighted the dire situation in Russia not only for his own people, but also for other peoples facing russification and ethnocide. In addition, the report presented by the Ukrainian delegation to the UN includes numerous cases of killings, assassinations, and persecution of public figures, particularly from Muslim communities in Russia, such as Aslan Zhukov (Circassian), Muslim Khashagulgov and Rustam Lyyanov (Ingush), Fauzia Bayramova and the Kashapov brothers (Tatar), and Airat Dilmutov (Bashkir), among others. Thus, Ukraine is beginning to actively stand up for oppressed peoples in Russia, including Muslim communities.
We can see that while the regime in Russia enjoys complete impunity domestically, resistance against it is growing in the rest of the world, including in the interests of Russian citizens, peoples and religious communities. And this is undoubtedly good news.