Recently there have been important and significant news from the Tajik environment. It became known that on May 4 this year, the Armed Opposition Wing of Tajikistan (VAO) was created, and its representative informed some journalists about it. According to him, the decision was supported by a number of former commanders of the United Tajik Opposition (UTO) and the Popular Front, which fought against pro-Moscow Tajik communists in the early 1990s, but ceased armed struggle after the so-called national reconciliation signed in 1997. According to the VAO representative, «the decision to resort to military methods was made on May 4 by a group of opposition supporters who understand the ineffectiveness and insufficient efficiency of exclusively political methods of struggle.» He also promised to publish VAO’s political declaration and program by the end of May.
Considering that the identity of the representative of this VAO is unknown and that the news about it first appeared with the pro-Kremlin blogger Andrei Serenko, it initially seemed like a provocation. However, the situation changed after Muhiddin Kabiri, known for his caution and one of the leaders of the National Coalition of Tajik Opposition and head of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT), not only did not distance himself from the VAO, but in an interview with Tajik Radio Liberty essentially approved of its creation. In particular, Kabiri cited the events in Afghanistan and Ukraine as the factors that changed his attitude toward armed struggle: «After the events in Afghanistan and the war in Ukraine, we became more convinced that the whole world, all peoples, can use weapons to achieve their freedom and goals, but Tajiks cannot? We have been brainwashed with the idea that we must endure all oppression and violence, but never think about armed struggle. This subject is considered taboo or ‘haram’ for the Tajik people. Well, let’s hope that this is exactly what we wrote about the need for in 2017 — a revision of the toothless strategy of the IRPT, which led to its complete destruction in its homeland and the establishment of the tyranny of Rahmon in Tajikistan, who realized that he need not fear resistance.
It is worth noting that this is happening simultaneously with the arming of other previously unarmed and pacifist oppositions in the post-Soviet space. Moreover, it is happening as a result of the war initiated by the Kremlin against Ukraine, which declared its demilitarization as its goal. However, the result was not only an unprecedented militarization of Ukraine with the support of the entire West, but also the militarization of the anti-Lukashenko Belarusian and anti-Putin Russian resistances, which previously posed no real threat to the mustachioed and botoxed. In particular, within the Ukrainian Armed Forces, not only a powerful Belarusian volunteer battalion named after Kastus Kalinowski was formed, but also the «Freedom of Russia» legion, created from Russian servicemen and volunteers who switched sides to Ukraine. Moreover, the former is already politically represented by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, whom many in the world perceive as the democratically elected president of Belarus in exile. It is possible that the Russian opposition in exile will also take a step toward uniting its political groups with this legion, and then it too will have its own armed wing.
In this regard, it is important that the actions of the armed wing of the resistance in military matters are subject to the political leadership of the resistance. However, this requires the latter to overcome psychological barriers and start acting as representatives of the armed resistance instead of trying to distance themselves from it, as Kabiri continues to do, according to the interview. Otherwise, there is a danger of repeating what happened to the Islamic forces in many armed conflicts, when the armed wing became uncontrollable and destructive while the political wing distanced itself from it, leaving the opposition without armed forces toothless. If there are any Tajik subscribers reading this who are in contact with the leaders of the IRPT and the National Coalition, please pass this message on to them.