While Turkey is in flames, Bosnia and Herzegovina is experiencing a political firestorm. It revolves around the recognition or denial of genocides, which is gradually escalating into a cold war, which, given the peculiarities of the region, could potentially escalate into a real war.
Recently, Muslims in this country, as well as the entire Ummah and people of goodwill worldwide, commemorated another anniversary of the Srebrenica genocide — the largest in post-war European history. However, there are still many in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) who publicly deny this genocide and openly glorify its organizers and perpetrators, calling for its repetition and chanting slogans such as «Knife, Wire, Srebrenica». It is not difficult to guess that this is happening in the so-called Republika Srpska within BiH.
Apparently tired of this, Valentin Inzko, the High Representative for BiH, initiated the inclusion of an article in the BiH Criminal Code that provides for punishment of public denial of the Srebrenica genocide. The article was adopted in response to the parliament of the so-called Republika Srpska passing a law on criminal responsibility for those who call this «republic» a genocidal entity, which is undoubtedly the truth, since it was created through ethnic «cleansing» of its territory from Bosniaks and Croats.
However, the problem goes much deeper than the different assessments of recent historical events. The co-president of BiH, Milorad Dodik, called the recent decisions the last nail in the coffin of Bosnia and Herzegovina and announced a blockade of BiH by representatives of the so-called Republika Srpska. In this context, these decisions should be seen as a consequence of the systemic conflict in and around BiH rather than as its cause.
After all, Milorad Dodik has repeatedly declared his intention to end Bosnia and Herzegovina by separating the captured Serbian part from it. He cited the Dayton Agreement, even though it actually allows for the existence of the Republika Srpska within BiH, while adhering to its constitution and the protocols of the Dayton Agreement, including the return of displaced refugees to their places of residence. However, the leaders of the so-called Republika Srpska have refused to do so, both by taking provocative unconstitutional decisions and by obstructing the return of refugees. When confronted with this, they threatened to withdraw from BiH.
In the end, the BiH leadership lost patience and, with the support of the High Representative for BiH established under the Dayton Agreement, decided to confront the problem head-on. How will the leadership of the so-called Republika Srpska respond? By boycotting the actions of the leadership of Bosnia and Herzegovina, they will only make it possible for the latter to take the necessary decisions, which were impossible before, because the representatives of the Republika Srpska had a veto power. And if we follow the logic of escalating the conflict to its conclusion, Republika Srpska will have to declare its separation from BiH. However, this will not only be unrecognized by the international community, but will likely lead to Western sanctions against this unrecognized republic and its blockade. If the Republika Srpska were to withdraw from the Dayton Agreement, which would mean declaring independence, the BiH authorities could decide to restore the country’s pre-Dayton constitution, which did not provide for the existence of the Republika Srpska at all.
Bosnia and Herzegovina is now on the verge of a full-blown cold war. Will it turn into a hot war? That will depend on how the external actors behave…