Immediately after the end of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, we wrote that the struggle over Karabakh should by no means be considered over (https://golosislama.com/news.php?id=39307), and later clarified that it should be considered as one of the manifestations of a global confrontation in which Azerbaijan has now become involved (https://golosislama.com/news.php?id=39394). The events of the past few days vividly illustrate this thesis, but before delving into their coverage, let’s start with another question.
Many analysts today speculate about the emerging Russian-Turkish strategic alliance based on the peacekeeping efforts of the two countries in Karabakh. But let’s see who in practice is interested in the strategic development of such cooperation in the region, and who says one thing and does something completely different in words…
At a meeting with the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu once again clearly confirmed Turkey’s interest in reconciliation and cooperation with Armenia and reconciliation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He specifically said: «Mr. Aliyev, despite all difficulties, has extended a hand of peace to Armenia, has shown good will. Our president and we have said many times that if this process goes its own way, if there is a lasting peace, we can normalize relations between Turkey and Armenia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. This is what must be done. We will coordinate our work with Azerbaijan on this issue. Our cooperation with Russia is important in this regard. We really want to see such a result, so that there will be peace, stability, economic development, so that our missions will not have to establish and monitor peace there in the future.»
After the military defeat in Armenia itself, voices supporting the resumption of relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan have emerged even in the government of Nikol Pashinyan and his still ruling party. Armenian Economy Minister Vaan Kerobyan called for open borders, stating: «Of course, open borders are very good for the economy, because competition leads to higher quality products, which means that our economy can reach a global level in terms of quality. When cheap and low-quality products are imported into the country, our local producers are forced to become better. Turkish ports will be opened, which will provide many more opportunities. It is possible that the Azerbaijani market will open for our goods and our market will open for Azerbaijan». Andranik Kocharyan, a member of the ruling party and parliamentary faction, made a similar appeal, saying: «We have lost on the battlefield, morally and psychologically. We must get out of this situation as soon as possible. We must try to start a dialog with the winning side, no matter how difficult it may seem. Establishing diplomatic relations with Azerbaijan can change the expected prospects.»
However, as expected, this caused a storm of indignation in Armenia and the Armenian diaspora, especially among those forces demanding Pashinyan’s resignation from power, his trial or even extrajudicial execution (https://golosislama.com/news.php?id=39418). These statements, along with Pashinyan’s «surrender of Artsakh» and his agreement to return some territories to Azerbaijan within the framework of the ongoing border demarcation with Armenia along the administrative borders of the two former Soviet republics, for which the Armenian side unilaterally withdrew, are used as confirmation that the current Armenian Prime Minister is a «Turkish puppet». And the mouthpiece of Armenian extremism and terrorism, Aram Gabrelyanov, who spreads the slogan «Turk Nikol», clearly formulated the dilemma facing Armenia: «The watershed is very simple — either a pro-Turkish Armenia with Pashinyan or a pro-Russian Armenia without Pashinyan.
In words, Vladimir Putin has repeatedly expressed support for Nikol Pashinyan and even defended him against attacks by Armenian extremists, declaring that he was forced to capitulate. Putin’s Russia is setting up a monitoring center with Turkey, Lavrov and Cavusoglu are discussing the prospects of establishing sustainable peace and cooperation in the region, and so on, but this week the head of the so-called Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) Security Council, Vitaly Balasanyan, makes a provocative statement that this entity, with Russia’s help, intends to «regain» territories that came under Azerbaijani control during the recent war.
At the same time, Balasanyan begins to act as the de facto leader of this separatist entity, announcing the subordination of all security forces to him and demanding that its political leadership shut down its social media sites. In addition, his party «Justice» issues a joint statement with the representative of the extremist party «Dashnaktsutyun» in the so-called NKR, directed against the nominal leader of the NKR, Arayik Harutyunyan, considered a Pashinyan loyalist, demanding that power be handed over to the opposition.
What does Moscow have to do with this? The point is that all this is happening the day after a one-hour conversation between Vladimir Putin and Robert Kocharyan, the former head of the so-called NKR and Armenia, who is an informal leader of the «Karabakh clan» that was ousted by Pashinyan’s Velvet Revolution in 2018. And today, the Kremlin’s press service announces Vladimir Putin’s New Year and Christmas congratulations to the same Robert Kocharyan, and later to Serzh Sargsyan, the former president of Armenia and another representative of the «Karabakh clan».
Another interesting aspect of the statement by the NKR’s hunch leader Balasanyan was the demand that «sectarians» close all their offices in this entity and leave its territory. By «sectarians,» they mean all Christian groups other than the Armenian Apostolic Church (AAC), especially the «Word of Life» Church, which has been accused of being one of the shock troops and supporters of the new government since the Velvet Revolution in 2018. This is interesting because in Armenia itself, the AAC is openly supporting the militant opposition and undermining Pashinyan, calling for his resignation, expelling him from their churches where priests refuse to shake his hand, and so on. All this has led to Pashinyan’s supporters planning to storm the AAC’s residence in Etchmiadzin in recent days, prompting supporters of the acting Patriarch-Catholicos to go there to prevent this from happening.
If we add up all these facts, it is clear that the «rays of support» sent by the Kremlin to the party of revenge and war in Armenia and Artsakh are not accidental. They are united by the ideology of opposing «color revolutions», «sectarians» and so on. The Armenian security forces and clergy are close to the Chekists of the «Russian world» both in terms of class and ideology. The problem, however, is that the latter are supporters not only of a «firm hand» but also of revenge against Azerbaijan and Turkey and the return of Armenia to its role as a military outpost of Russia in the region, which it played under the previous regime.
In conclusion, it is quite clear that the «rays of support» sent by the Kremlin to the party of vengeance and war in Armenia and Artsakh are not accidental. They are united by the ideology of opposing «color revolutions,» «sectarians,» and so on. The Armenian security forces and clergy are close to the Chekists of the «Russian world» both in terms of class and ideology. The problem, however, is that the latter are not only in favor of a «firm hand» but also of revenge against Azerbaijan and Turkey and of returning Armenia to its role as a military outpost of Russia in the region, which it played under the previous regime.