The most important news of the past week for Muslims in the post-Soviet space is, of course, not the death of the British Queen and the accession of her son to the throne (despite the symbolic significance of these events), but the swift counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army in the direction of Kharkiv. While the Russian army fought for every village and hut in Donbass, razing them to the ground for months, the Ukrainian army effectively surrounded and liberated the 30,000-strong city of Balaklava and several adjacent settlements in just two days, and encircled the Russian grouping in Izium. Whether the Ukrainian liberating soldiers will be able to organize a cauldron, beloved by the Russian invaders, or whether they will be able to stabilize the front line by going into a defensive position, throwing all their reserves, is still unknown. However, the Ukrainian command clearly does not intend to limit itself to one direction and is pushing the occupiers near Kherson, preparing new surprises for them…
We do not know exactly how the events on the war fronts will develop in the near future. But one thing is certain — this week marked not only a military, but also a moral-psychological and socio-political turning point in this war.
THE RUSSIAN COLOSSUS ON BROKEN LEGS IS CRUMBLING.
And this is best seen not in the opposition resources, but in the pro-government and militarist resources, which are screaming about «betrayal», «conspiracy», and the prospect of defeat in the war is obvious… And this «and…» is the most important and directly affects Muslims, especially in Russia. Because it is obvious that with the defeat of the Kremlin in the war in Ukraine, nothing will end.
EVERYTHING WILL ONLY BEGIN.
And this is what these pro-government and militarist propagandists say themselves, uttering the two phrases with horror: NEW FEBRUARY and NEW TURMOIL.
What is February for Russia? It is the overthrow of Tsar Nicholas II in February 1917, not by Lenin, no — he came later, and eight months after the first, the February Revolution, he staged his October Revolution, not against the Tsar, but against the Provisional Government. And in February, after failures on the front and political and economic crises, Nicholas II was removed from power by his own military, using street demonstrations, after which various forces formed the Provisional Government.
In contrast to February, the so-called Turmoil took place in Russia at the beginning of the 17th century, after Ivan the Terrible had paved the way for the future civil war with his endless wars and terror. It began after an army of people, led by a man who proclaimed himself the surviving Tsarevich Dmitry, entered Russia with their support from the territory of present-day Poland and Ukraine. After that, a series of power struggles between various competing internal and external groups began, with new claimants to the throne emerging, and so on.
So the prospect of a New February and New Turmoil in the event of the defeat and collapse of the Russian army on the war fronts with Ukraine is already being discussed not by the opposition — it is being discussed by pro-government channels.
And this means that Muslims need to study how events unfolded after the same February 1917 in order to be able to take advantage of similar opportunities without repeating the mistakes made then.
But first and foremost, it is necessary to understand that the New February and the New Unrest may come whether we want it or not. And when they do, the question will not be whether we wanted them or not, but whether we are ready to face them or not.
What are February and Turmoil essentially? It is, first of all, the fall of the old power and the period in which the new power has not yet had time to emerge. It is a period of great danger for ordinary people, but not less opportunity for groups with organization, personnel, necessary resources and a clear understanding of their goals. Unfortunately, a century ago in Russia, the brilliant Satanist Lenin and his like-minded colleagues became such a force, and as a result, after February came October, after which the situation of Muslims (and not only Muslims) only worsened. Fortunately, this time there is no player of Lenin’s level on the horizon of our enemies, but this does not mean that there will be no other threats. They will certainly exist, but those who bury their heads in the sand will not be able to protect themselves from them. Survival and even victory in these events will be achieved by communities and groups that have goals and unity. And this is what we call upon the Muslims in the territory that is still marked on the world map as the «Russian Federation».