Yesterday’s decision by the U.S. Congress on lend-lease to Ukraine is epochal in its consequences. It refers to the opening of long-term credit and supply lines to Ukraine for modern heavy weapons worth $20 billion. In particular, it mentions third-generation M1A2 Abrams tanks, M2A3 Bradley BMPs, M109A6 Paladin self-propelled artillery, HIMARS wheeled chassis multiple rocket launcher systems, M270 MLRS universal launcher systems for RSZO, NASAMS 2 Norwegian mobile air defense systems, Patriot air defense systems, fourth-generation F-16 C/D multirole fighters, and S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems.
In essence, this means that Russia will not be able to win a war against Ukraine. Moreover, once these weapons begin to arrive, Ukraine, which is currently retreating slowly but surely in Donbass and suffering significant human losses, will be in a position to launch an offensive. Experts estimate that this turning point could occur as early as July.
It follows that Ukraine and its allies are betting not on a compromise with the Kremlin, in which Russia would gain new territory and political concessions from Ukraine, but on a military defeat of Putin’s Russia.
In such a case, the Kremlin will inevitably face a choice at some point — to begin withdrawing its troops, which it will have to beg for, or to start an all-out war. Moreover, since the Kremlin may be asked to withdraw not only from the entire Donbass, but also from Crimea, the second scenario may become the only option.
As this perspective begins to emerge, Kremlin leaders and propagandists are increasingly talking about nuclear war, either to prepare their population or to try to blackmail Ukraine and the West. However, the latter is not very effective, so the West has already made it clear that it will not succumb to the Kremlin’s nuclear blackmail and is prepared for nuclear war. Moreover, if the hyped «second army of the world» turns out to be junk, the same is likely to be true of Russia’s nuclear weapons.
Thus, for the foreseeable future, the Kremlin may have to choose between defeat in a conventional war or defeat in a nuclear war. In neither case will Russia as it exists today remain intact. In the first case, it will cease to exist politically as it does now, although the territory and population currently under its control will be preserved. In the second case, it may drag them and a significant part of the world, starting with the West, into oblivion. Muslims should prepare themselves for both scenarios.
As for the second scenario, while it may be shocking to ordinary people, it fits perfectly with Islamic concepts of the end times. In particular, hadiths about battles being fought with swords and bows before the end of the world can be explained by the disappearance of modern technological civilization due to some kind of catastrophe. It is not impossible that such a catastrophe will occur.
However, we do not know when or how it will happen, and we certainly should not wish for the destruction of millions of people and other creations of Allah. Therefore, we must hope for the first scenario, and during these last days of Ramadan, we can turn to Allah with prayers that He will prevent such a catastrophe.
However, it should be understood that the first scenario also offers great opportunities, including for the Muslim peoples of present-day Russia, but it also entails significant risks. When our opponents talk about these risks and try to maintain the status quo, we, unlike many optimists, are not inclined to dismiss them. We simply point out that burying our heads in the sand will not prevent these risks, so instead of such an ostrich-like policy, we must prepare in advance how to neutralize them.
Understanding the complexity of the situation that will arise in such a case, we do not propose simple and universal solutions for everyone. The way in which the political landscape of contemporary Russia and its constituent parts will be reorganized depends on various factors, many of which cannot be predicted at present.
But one thing is certain. One of the decisive factors in such a situation will be the quality of the forces that will act as representatives of their peoples and religious communities. This implies the adequacy of their political projects and leaders capable of implementing them, including in cooperation with necessary allies.
Therefore, representatives of Muslim peoples and communities who have the necessary knowledge and experience should already start working on the formation of such projects, seeking like-minded individuals and engaging in dialogue with potential allies.