One of the most important recent news affecting Muslim peoples under the rule of the Kremlin is the bill proposed by deputy Alexei Goncharenko to recognize the independence of Ichkeria by Ukraine, which we wrote about recently. The question is whether official Kiev will decide on it. At first glance, nothing prevents it from doing so.
Not only did Russia violate Ukraine’s territorial integrity eight years ago by officially incorporating Crimea into its territory, but it also officially recognized the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics as independent states, not part of Ukraine, which the whole world recognizes as its territory. With the start of the Great War on February 24, 2022, its leaders are already openly declaring that they intend to eradicate Ukrainian statehood in principle, and unofficially, the Ukrainian nation as a whole.
In such circumstances, when the Ukrainian authorities no longer need to fear angering Russia and have nothing to lose, they could take a step like denying Russia’s territorial integrity by recognizing Ichkeria — as a response to Russia’s denial of Ukrainian statehood and territorial integrity.
However, what can now hinder Kyiv from doing this is no longer fear of the Kremlin’s reaction, but fear of the reaction of the rest of the world, more precisely of Ukraine’s allies in the West. Unlike the international terrorists in the Kremlin, the West is very sensitive to these issues because they can also affect the Western states themselves, which are concerned about their territorial integrity.
That is why, apart from Kosovo, which was a completely unique case and had a long history of attempts by the international community to resolve its problem, the West has long refrained from recognizing the independence of even those peoples who are fighting against its competitors. Uyghurs and Tibetans in China, Arabs and Azerbaijanis in Iran have not received recognition of their independence from the West, although there are forces there that are striving for it. Moreover, even Taiwan, which the West is trying to protect from being absorbed by China, has not been recognized as independent by the majority of Western countries.
Therefore, it may not be the Kremlin, which on the contrary is pushing Ukraine in this direction, but only the West that can prevent Ukraine from recognizing Ichkeria. On the other hand, if this recognition takes place, it will have far-reaching consequences not only for Ukraine, but also for the Western partners who gave their consent. And the responsibility for its consequences will fall entirely on the Kremlin.