Thanks to Putin’s Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the latter’s accession to the EU no longer looks like unscientific fiction. Now this issue is being seriously discussed. It cannot be said that this is guaranteed in the near future, but it cannot be ruled out that Ukraine could be admitted to the EU in the event of some kind of comprehensive ceasefire with Russia as a result of the war. Not in the format of Ukraine — Russia, but in the format of Russia — Ukraine — EU — USA and other guarantor countries. But this is still a long way off, as none of the warring parties can currently achieve an acceptable peace. Therefore, the war will continue until the loser agrees to the terms of the winner. This may depend on the success of some and the failure of others, as well as on the prospects for the continuation of the war.
Either way, Ukraine’s accession to the EU, which would be impossible through regular channels in the foreseeable future, may take place thanks to the war and its outcome. But there is another country whose prospects for EU membership are closely linked to the issue of security and a possible new war that could explode in one of the most important regions for Europe. This country, of great importance to Muslims, is called Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), and the region in which it is located is the Western Balkans.
We have repeatedly written about the explosive nature of political developments in BiH in recent years. Both our readers and anyone interested in international politics know that Bosnian Muslims are fighting a two-front war against Serb forces and Croatian chauvinists in collusion with them. The former want to completely separate the so-called Serb Republic from BiH, with the captured Muslim lands in the north «cleansed» of Muslims. The latter want to create a similar republic in the south, so that as a result of the implementation of such plans, Muslim Bosnia would be turned into an enclave surrounded by crusaders.
It is worth noting that both Serbs and Croats have their own states to which those who do not want to live in BiH can easily go, and this is what is happening in practice. However, this is categorically unacceptable to their nationalist mafias in BiH, who do not want to be «last in the city», i.e. in Serbia and Croatia, but «first in the village», i.e. in their own fiefdoms in BiH.
Despite the fact that the political confrontation over these contradictions has been going on for years, a war in the country can start quickly, within weeks or even days — after all, this is the Balkans. Moreover, given the dependence of the leadership of the Serb entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina on the Kremlin, Russia could initiate it if it wants to open a second front in its struggle against the West right in the heart of NATO and the EU.
All this was discussed this week at the congress of one of the largest political blocs in the EU — the European People’s Party (EPP), which includes influential center-right and right-of-center national parties. The congress was attended by the de facto leader of Bosnian Muslims in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bakir Izetbegovic, as chairman of the Party of Democratic Action (SDA), which is part of the EPP.
It is important that the resolution on BiH adopted by the EPP Congress clearly expressed support for the territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina and condemned all attempts to destabilize it from within. And this is important because, in addition to the Bosniak SDA, the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), which includes Croatian separatists in BiH, is also part of the EPP. And in exchange for recognizing the unity of BiH, they traditionally try to twist the hands of the Bosniak Muslims in order to satisfy their inadequate Croat ambitions. But the EPP, which includes both parties, took a firm stand for the integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina against the background of the war in Ukraine.
However, abstract resolutions of even influential European parties are no longer enough. That is why Bakir Izetbegovic raised the question of granting BiH the status of a candidate country for EU membership in the same extraordinary way as it was done for Ukraine.
In order for Ukraine to receive such a status and the prospect of EU membership, it was necessary for Russia to attack it. Will the EU wait for Russia to attack BiH at the hands of its Serbian proxies?