So the long-awaited war between the US and Iran did not happen. As we wrote yesterday, despite the serious threats against the US, Tehran mainly limited itself to killing its own Iranians (https://golosislama.com/news.php?id=37859).
Donald Trump, who humiliated Tehran by declaring that he knew in advance about the attack on the American base, in which no one was hurt, made it clear that he will not start a war, but will continue to suffocate the Khomeinist regime with sanctions (https://golosislama.com/news.php?id=37863).
In turn, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated that Iran had retaliated proportionately for the killing of Soleimani and would not carry out any new attacks if the Americans did not respond to his PR strike on their base.
A major war has been avoided, but should we relax? One of the leading Ukrainian analysts, Yuri Romanenko, compared these events to the Agadir crisis of 1911, when a German gunboat «Panther» entered a Moroccan port, which almost led to war between Germany and France. It was avoided at the time, but three years later the First World War broke out because the contradictions between its participants were objective and insoluble.
Ibrahim Karagül, the editor-in-chief of the Turkish publication «Yeni Safak», who is close to Recep Tayyip Erdogan, writes about the same thing in his editorial column. He believes that the parties are speeding towards an inevitable war, and these parties are not Iran and the US, but Iran and the Arab coalition, primarily Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
In fact, if we look at things soberly, the US simply does not need a war with Iran, which was made clear by Trump. In fact, starting with Barack Obama, America has been gradually disengaging from the Middle East (and beyond), only with different views on how to do it. If Obama, willingly or unwillingly, began to cede the role of regional hegemon to Iran, Trump is pursuing the policies of those who believe that this should not be allowed to happen.
However, this does not mean that America will protect Saudi Arabia and the UAE from Iran and fight for them against Iran. On the contrary, it is important to remember that during his election campaign, Trump attacked Saudi Arabia as well as Iran. He himself, as he openly stated, is an American nationalist who is only interested in the well-being of Americans, the growth of the American economy, reducing unnecessary expenses for it, and not in some unpleasant countries and peoples.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is that sooner or later Washington will try to pit Iran against the Arab regimes in order to undermine the former without worrying too much about what will happen to the latter. Unfortunately, as Karagül writes, both potential participants in this devastating war have accepted the roles assigned to them.
The Tehran regime understands that it has no chance to survive in peaceful conditions under the conditions of suffocation by sanctions and regional resistance to its plans, as it will simply be strangled and destabilized — from the outside and from within. The regimes of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, on the other hand, apparently believe that Washington will not abandon them, so they allow themselves the luxury of confrontation not only with Shiite Iran, but also with Sunni Qatar and Turkey.
As for the latter, as Karagül’s article implies, it is important for Turkey not to get involved in this war. Cynically speaking, in this case Turkey could even benefit from it, in the midst of the collapse and weakening of the competing power poles. It could do so if it is not drawn into an equally dangerous conflict due to growing contradictions in the Mediterranean (https://golosislama.com/news.php?id=36804).
Developing this idea, it can be said that from the perspective of the civilizational prospects of the Islamic world, neither the Khomeinist regime nor the gas-station royal regimes of Arabistan will be missed — as opposed to the millions of ordinary Muslims who will become victims of their folly and ambition, and their countries, which may regress to the Stone Age. As we wrote earlier, hypothetically, the Islamic world now presents a non-Arab and non-Persian alternative — a combination of Turkey, Pakistan and Malaysia (https://golosislama.com/news.php?id=36933).
But who says that the same cannot be done with any of these countries? The risks for Turkey have already been mentioned, Pakistan could be neutralized by a war with India or by internal chaos, and without it little Malaysia is capable of little. So the situation is extremely alarming.
And right now, it is still possible to lay down loaded weapons and turn to negotiations as an alternative to mutual destruction. And for those who do not really believe in this possibility, prepare yourself for the challenges of a great war and the new world that will be born in it.