What are the latest geopolitical trends in the Islamic world?



Over the past few weeks, the Voice of Islam has covered several new news stories. However, when viewed in a general context, they provide an opportunity to reflect on geopolitical trends in the modern Islamic world.

1. India’s attack on Kashmir

Kashmir, acquired by India during the partition of the subcontinent into predominantly Hindu and Muslim states (Pakistan), has been a hotbed of conflict within the ummah for almost 70 years. But now, against the backdrop of the rise to power and strengthening of the radical Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in place of the secular nationalist Indian National Congress (INC), something more significant is happening than the separation of Muslim territory from the Muslim state of Pakistan.

We are talking about the policy of radical Hindus to strip Kashmir of its Muslim identity by abolishing its autonomous status and changing the demographic balance. In other words, Kashmir could become a new Xinjiang Uyghur district, and the most dramatic aspect of this situation is that, as in the case of the Uyghurs, there is no real force capable of not only protesting against it, as Pakistan does, but also preventing the nuclear giant India from implementing its plans.

2. Zakir Naik’s case and the Chinese problem

As we have written before, the well-known Indian Muslim preacher Zakir Naik, who was forced to leave his homeland due to persecution by the BJP and found refuge in Malaysia, was almost extradited back to India after his remarks in defense of the Uighurs and against the privileged position of the Chinese and Indian communities in Southeast Asian Muslim countries — against the backdrop of persecution of the Muslim minority in India and China.

As a result, Naik was forced to apologize to the Chinese and Indian communities in Malaysia for his racist remarks, and he is now banned from any public preaching in the country, effectively recommending that a replacement be found.

In this regard, our author Yakub Hadjich has already written about the vulnerability of Malaysia as a multi-ethnic state, despite the fact that it is led by Prime Minister Mahathir, known for his pan-Islamic views, amid inter-ethnic conflicts between Muslim Malays and the Chinese and Indian communities. However, we should also point out another aspect — returning to the question of Kashmir, the main tactical ally of its Muslims against India is… China, the oppressor of its own Uighurs.

On the other hand, as we wrote in the article about the protests in Hong Kong, it would be wrong to consider the Chinese as racial enemies of Muslims, not only because it contradicts the Islamic faith, which rejects racism, but also because there are many ethnic Chinese who oppose the communist regime in Beijing. They exist at least in Hong Kong, in Singapore, and they should be present in the Chinese diaspora in Southeast Asia. Moreover, why not try to turn these Chinese living in Muslim countries in the region into friendly Islamic advocates who support Muslim Chinese? Then the Chinese in Muslim countries could become a factor of influence in the vast Chinese world that Muslims have not yet been able to overcome in direct confrontation.

3. UAE — KSA policy and the growing rift between them

The awarding of one of the UAE’s highest honors to the leader of Hindu militants, Narendra Modi, in the midst of the ongoing campaign against Muslims in Kashmir, once again raises questions about the role of this small state in the Islamic world.

The UAE, together with the KSA, supported the overthrow of Mohammad Morsi in Egypt, the military coup of General Khalifa Haftar in Libya, the blockade of Qatar, and in particular the UAE also lobbied for the withdrawal of aid to the Syrian rebels and steps towards reconciliation with the Assad regime. We should also mention their unwavering support for a Zionist solution to the Palestinian question. Now we see their support for the Modi regime, which wants to solve the Kashmir issue in a similar way as his friend Netanyahu deals with the Palestinian issue.

Both countries are at the forefront of initiatives against any pro-Islamic forces, which cannot fail to disappoint, considering that the holy sites are under the control of the UAE, and the other is a rare example of a Muslim country succeeding in technological and economic development. On the other hand, is there any value in secular development if its fruits are used to fight religion? The rhetorical question. The practical question is whether it is possible to change these regimes and/or their policies in order to preserve their objective achievements and not turn these countries into ruins of civil wars… And the latter option is not so unrealistic, considering that recent events in Yemen have clearly shown the limits of cooperation between the Emiratis and the Saudis and the growing rift between them.

4. Turkey — Qatar as an alternative… Weak

In the face of the UAE’s policy of supporting Modi’s regime, the Qatari government’s statement of abandoning support for China’s repressive policies against the Uyghurs, together with Turkey’s cautious statements in defense of the Uyghurs, once again demonstrate that these two countries and their alliance remain the only Muslim states that at least declaratively try to take into account the pan-Islamic agenda in their policies.

Unfortunately, the failure of Turkish policy in Idlib immediately revealed something else — a discrepancy between words and deeds, and the practical weakness of this duo in the larger geopolitics. In this regard, it remains to be hoped that Erdogan can at least compensate for the territorial losses in Idlib with an equal or larger expansion of the Turkish safe zone in northeastern Syria and defend at least a symbolic part of this province, drawing a real red line for the Damascus regime and its allies that cannot be crossed in relations with Turkey.

5. ISIS — No Alternative

Amid all the problems and failures of the Muslim states and the rebels dependent on them in Syria, discussions about the so-called revival of ISIS* do not seem sensational. However, it should be noted that the source of this information — American military intelligence circles — is interested in maintaining the topic of the ISIS threat or its revival in order to allocate the appropriate budgets to counter it.

Nevertheless, from a psychological point of view, it will not be surprising if, against the background of the absolute immorality or helplessness of Muslim states, some frustrated Muslims look to the alternative of the so-called Islamic State, which is «uncompromising and unshakable».

It should be understood, however, that this alternative has demonstrated its utter destructiveness at the very moment when its proponents had the brilliant opportunity to create a truly revolutionary Islamic project capable of winning the support of millions of Muslims and more. Instead, this project essentially became a Trojan horse, leaving behind ruins and scorched earth even where Muslim forces, divided and opposed to the rest of the world with its emergence, had the opportunity to stand firmly on their feet.

This history should teach us that simple and externally effective solutions are not always effective and do not always represent what they claim to be, and in some cases quite the opposite. Therefore, no matter how difficult the situation in the Islamic world is, solutions should be sought that will contribute to its improvement rather than aggravation.

* Banned in Russia


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