The recent negotiations between the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, mediated by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, can be described as a success for all parties involved. However, it is primarily a success for Ilham Aliyev, as it is clearly what he wanted, and not what his counterpart Nikol Pashinyan would have wanted. Nevertheless, Pashinyan, being the most reasonable politician in Armenia at the moment, is forced to go along with it, recognizing Armenia’s position.
During the negotiations, an agreement was reached on the establishment of a commission for the demarcation and delimitation of the internationally recognized borders between Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as on the conclusion of a peace treaty to consolidate them. However, the wording of the agreement makes no mention of the «status of Nagorno-Karabakh» or «Artsakh,» nor does it incorporate any such geopolitical concepts. Instead, they use only the official Azerbaijani wording — «Karabakh». There is no longer any mention of the «people of Artsakh» or the «people of Nagorno-Karabakh» whose rights Baku is supposed to guarantee. Instead, there is now a «question of the rights and security of the ethnic Armenian population in Karabakh» that needs to be addressed.
It is worth noting that official Baku has never objected to the idea of Azerbaijani citizens of Armenian nationality living in Karabakh. The question, however, is how many ethnic Armenians are willing to be or become citizens of Azerbaijan and give up their pan-Armenian aspirations. In conclusion, Aliyev’s success is undeniable and unambiguous. However, it is also a success for Pashinyan and an opportunity for Armenia itself to preserve its internationally recognized borders and move towards mutually beneficial relations with its neighbors, who have long offered cooperation instead of war.
The only problem is whether Pashinyan, who offers Armenians the chance to seize this opportunity, can stay in power. Mass protests against him continue in Armenia, where he is criticized for «betraying national interests. Not surprisingly, these protests are often attended by guests from Moscow who, as usual, present themselves as Armenia’s most ardent patriots.
In addition, provocations by representatives of the «ethnic Armenian population in Karabakh» cannot be excluded, who are ready to do anything to prevent Baku or the international community from protecting their rights as citizens of Azerbaijan. The only way for them to prevent this is to disrupt the signing of the peace agreement between the two neighboring countries and prolong it as long as possible, ideally ensuring the permanent presence of Russian troops in their unrecognized «Artsakh». Fortunately, Russia is becoming the protector of all unrecognized entities on the territory of internationally recognized states of the former USSR.