The newspaper Hürriyet reported that Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ordered a study on the possibility of converting Hagia Sophia into a mosque. If we consider this issue in the context of Turkish domestic politics, such news raises skepticism, because the issue has been discussed and debated almost every year during Erdogan’s tenure, with hints and promises being made, but then suspended under various pretexts.
However, if we consider it in the context of foreign policy, we must admit that this time there is a chance for the return of not only Muslims in Turkey but also the entire Islamic Ummah to such an important symbol. And this is why.
Right now, Erdogan is celebrating the successful implementation of the first phase of his new Mediterranean strategy, which we wrote about about a year ago (https://golosislama.com/news.php?id=36804). While the final victory in the Libyan war has not yet been achieved, its course has undoubtedly been reversed. Haftar’s forces, which have effectively acted as proxies for a broad anti-Erdogan alliance, continue to retreat. The Kremlin is most likely considering a change of position in Libya and is testing the waters, which is not surprising — geography in this conflict works in Turkey’s favor and against Moscow (https://golosislama.com/news.php?id=38300).
However, this is by no means the end of an extremely dangerous game in the Mediterranean, where the stakes are very high. In August, the Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) may begin oil exploration in 5 new areas of the Mediterranean disputed by Turkey and Greece. Against this backdrop, Greek Defense Minister Nikos Panayotopoulos has called on the leadership and population of Greece to prepare for a military conflict with Turkey, for which they need to strengthen their defense potential.
And here we should recall that it is mainly from Greece that the main objections and essentially the hysteria about the possibility of returning the Hagia Sophia to the Muslims are coming. This means that if Erdogan has made the decision to escalate the conflict with Athens, the triumphant restoration of Hagia Sophia as a mosque would be quite logical. On the other hand, if he tries to find a compromise with Greece, the fate of Hagia Sophia could once again become a hostage of the situation.
In general, despite the very high risks of the game in the Mediterranean, as we have written before, the situation is currently very favorable for Turkey. Putin’s Russia seems to have little interest in the Mediterranean — given its shrinking economic potential, if we can expect new military adventures from Russia, they will probably be in the «near abroad,» presumably in Ukraine. The United States is in disarray, beginning to resemble a civil war, the beginning of which Heydar Jemal predicted shortly before his death in 2016, during Donald Trump’s presidency.
The leading EU countries without the USA are showing complete military-political helplessness. Recognizing this, French President Emmanuel Macron tried to turn Russia into an instrument for solving his political tasks, and clearly, first and foremost, for restraining Turkey (https://golosislama.com/news.php?id=37635). The trial run of this project was Libya, where Moscow effectively did the dirty work of France and the UAE, but as we can see, Erdogan managed to deal a significant blow to it.
Of course, this does not mean that this «lucky streak» will continue indefinitely and that Turkey will be able to do whatever it wants in the Mediterranean forever. As we have written before, the Mediterranean is not only a key sea of world civilization, it is also a region over which numerous empires have fought, and the struggle over which has provoked at least one world war.
Nevertheless, in the current favorable context, Erdogan can very well crown his success with the revival of the main symbol of the Ottoman Empire. After all, the best moment may not come soon, and given his physical and political age, it may not come to him personally.