The peaceful summit in Jeddah, attended by 42 countries, including Arab states, China, and even Ukraine, but not Russia, showed that the weight of this misunderstanding on the world stage continues to diminish.
Let’s be clear from the beginning — in this case it can hardly be called a summit of Ukraine’s friends or in support of its peaceful plan, as some Ukrainian commentators try to present it. Ukraine does have real friends or reliable allies, but they are certainly not China and not even Saudi Arabia, which organized this event. What is valuable, however, is that even they — the first, which is considered by many to be Russia’s main ally, and the second, which was suspected of drifting towards Russia — are not today promoting the idea that Ukraine should be «written off» for the sake of peace, as Moscow is seeking.
This explains the extremely nervous reaction to this summit of the drunken clown Medvedev, who shows the world almost daily what a triviality he is as the deputy president of a nuclear-armed country considered «great».
Clearly, if China reaches an agreement with the West on the parameters of a peaceful plan for Ukraine, Moscow will be left with no options.
But what might that plan be? Ukraine’s public position is known — it is the complete de-occupation of its territory within the 1991 borders, including Crimea. And at the summit in Jeddah, official support was expressed for Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity within these borders.
However, it’s understandable that in practice there are serious nuances, and everything will depend on the situation on the fronts. That’s why it is said now that real negotiations between Kiev and Moscow can be discussed closer to the end of the year, because by then the results and prospects of the military actions will become clear.
If they are maximally effective for Ukraine, that will be one scenario. Moderate — another. Conversely, if Putin tries to declare a general mobilization in the fall and switches to a counteroffensive, that would be a third scenario.
Of course, the ideal solution would be, if not a purely military, then a combined de-occupation of the entire Ukrainian territory based on the results of his offensive and the outcome of peace negotiations. As for the partial de-occupation of the territory, e.g. with access to the Sea of Azov, and the freezing of hostilities at the achieved positions, which is often discussed these days, this scenario raises a number of serious questions.
First of all, will Ukrainian society accept it, given its goal of complete liberation of its territory? Ultimately, it’s up to them to decide, since it’s not only their legitimate territories that are at stake, but also the people who would have to pay for their liberation. Secondly, and no less importantly, even if the Ukrainian state and society decide not to regain the territory militarily, beyond those who will have retaken it by then, freezing hostilities without receiving systemic security guarantees — it’s a new Khasavyurt, in which Ukraine would play the role of Ichkeria.
That’s why it’s obvious that Ukraine could only agree to a freeze of hostilities at the positions reached by then on one condition — if NATO and a substantial pool of international partners provide very specific guarantees of protection against aggression for the territory already under its control. Of course, it won’t give up the occupied territory, but it will already become a subject of negotiation and its fate will depend on the long-term solution of the Russian question. Most likely, it will be in a package together with the inclusion of the peoples and territories of Russia itself, awaiting decolonization.
In short, various options are possible and are already being discussed in the corridors of such summits. But which of them will be realized will depend only on the course of military actions. Therefore, in the near future, Ukraine’s goal is to liberate as much of its territory as possible, which Moscow will undoubtedly try to prevent.
As for Russia, the recent summit vividly demonstrated that it doesn’t have any real friends in the world. Putin’s calculation that Ukraine would be sacrificed for the sake of trade and interaction with Russia has completely collapsed, not only with the West, but also with the Arab world and even with China.