The events of the past week have convincingly proved the correctness of those who have long argued that Russia, under the leadership of the current regime, has embarked on a path of self-destruction and that its movement along this path is irreversible.
In just two days, the Russian state has practically destroyed itself, and it would have literally split into several parts under the leadership of hostile groups that do not recognize each other. Like in Syria or Libya, where Russia was «peacekeeping» with the active participation of the Wagner PMC, which ultimately brought this experience to Russia itself.
This time, Russia stopped just one step away from the Libyan or Syrian scenario. The only reason for this is that the leader of the rebellion, a former cook for Putin and executor of his «delicate» orders, took control of Rostov, passed through the Voronezh and Lipetsk regions, and had already entered Moscow, but did not dare to march on the city.
However, it was clearly demonstrated that next time, if there is someone with comparable forces, but a little more determination, nothing will stop him from going further and not turning back. And it doesn’t even have to be Moscow — it will be enough if the next time someone takes control of Rostov, Krasnodar, Khabarovsk, Ekaterinburg, Krasnoyarsk and refuses to retreat to barracks, takes up defense and declares his own people’s republic or interim government, openly defying the corrupt authorities.
And if the mere physical existence of Putin still keeps governors, ministers, generals, etc. around him out of inertia, in case something suddenly happens to him (which no one can guarantee), they will all start joining various competing groups.
The worst thing that happened in the last few days for the Muslims of Russia and especially for the Chechens and Chechnya was Kadyrov’s statement that his forces were sent to suppress the rebellion in Rostov and their actual movement in that direction.
Yes, it is worth noting the discrepancy between the statement and the reality, namely that «Akhmat» moved very slowly towards Rostov, giving rise to numerous memes on this topic, and it seems that they were not particularly eager to engage in combat, but waited for a peaceful resolution of the situation.
Nevertheless, there could have been a real battle, and what is also important is that the Kadyrovtsy confirmed the image of a force that is ready to suppress Russian uprisings in order to maintain power, for which, as everyone has seen, Russians are not eager to fight.
Moreover, if not long ago, when they came to fight against the «Russian Volunteer Corps» in the Belgorod region, one could at least say that they were part of the armed forces of Ukraine, now it would be impossible to say that about those who were fighting against Ukraine itself.
This is an extremely alarming situation, because neither this regime nor this state has a future, and it is already obvious. But instead of thinking about the fate of their people after their overthrow, the Kadyrovtsy are tying them to themselves, setting themselves against all their potential opponents.
And it would be all right if they were pitting them only against themselves. But unfortunately, in such clashes, the national and religious factor will certainly be used, as we have already heard this time, that «Chechen fighters have come to suppress the Russian uprising,» or «Black Muslims are taking over Holy Russia,» and so on.
The consequences of this can be disastrous, as we have already written — in order to find a scapegoat and sacrifice it to the masses, today’s opponents can unite on a nationalist basis and go to Chechnya.
Moreover, if in the first two wars this was done in order to conquer Chechnya, now, when Russian society does not particularly want to keep it in Russia, such a war can be presented to them as «liberating Russians from the Chechen Muslim yoke».
In this case, instead of using the downfall of this prison of nations for its long-awaited liberation from it, Chechnya could become the victim of a policy of fervent service to the imperial power that has done it so much harm.
Such a development of events must be prevented by all means, including by explaining to those who, against all common sense, still serve in Kadyrov’s forces, the risks of their participation in internal Russian conflicts, not only for themselves personally, but also for their people and their homeland (Chechnya).